Week 4 Picks

Another sub-par week last week. I went 5-8 with three draws, bringing the season total to 10-20. That's a nice batting average, but a poor betting average. Well, that's the past, and we'll move onto the present.

Pre-picks note: Currently watching the Cal-Oregon game. Some thoughts:

• For whatever reason, ABC isn't showing the game in HD. Does Oregon's stadium not have HD cameras? Their funded by Phil Knight. They play with uniforms made of money. How can that stadium not have HD cameras?
• Oregon has a stud running back in Jonathan Stewart. I have no idea what his career numbers are, or what kind of run defense call has, but this guy passes the eye test. Of course, the most impressive athletes on the field are the receivers for Cal.
• This was a perfect game until Oregon fumbled the kickoff. Thankfully Cal did nothing and had to punt. At this moment Cal is up 24-17 but Oregon just completed a big pass to get into the redzone. 8 minutes left though. Even if Oregon scores, Cal will have plenty of time to drive for the winning score. I'm sure I'll have a final at the end of this post.

Raiders +4 (over DOLPHINS) - I think I heard Culpepper is playing this week. Love the revenge factor. I also don't like the fins. I'm picking the Dolphins to win a close one, but not to cover.

FALCONS +3 (over Texans) - Andre Johnson is out, and the Texans running backs are beat up. The Falcons have to win at some point, so why not take the points in a home game? If the Texans happen to lose this game, their playoff chances will be dealt a big blow.

BROWNS +4.5 (over Ravens) - Another revenge game: Jamal Lewis takes on his former team's defense. Actually, this is a double whammy - the old Browns return to play the new Browns. I don't think the Browns are bad enough to get blown out, nor do I think the Ravens are good enough to blow out the Browns.

LIONS +3 (over Bears) - Here's the story of this game: For the Bears, Vasher is doubtful, Tillman and Archuleta are questionable, and Mike Brown is out for the season. The Bears' opening-day starting secondary will be either hurt or out for the game. The Bears also have a bunch of other (possibly playable) injuries to key players (Briggs, Harris, Ogunleye, Urlacher), but the injuries in the secondary are key. Detroit's offense is all about Kitna throwing to Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson (questionable), and Mike Furrey. I know the Lions got destroyed by the Eagles last week. That doesn't concern me. The Bears are starting the Brian Griese era this week, and their running game is more than suspect. I foresee blowout that will signal the Bears jumping the shark.

VIKINGS +3 (over Packers) - This game is all about Adrian Peterson vs. the Packers' front seven. I think this is the week where the Packers' lack of a run game will catch up with them.

COWBOYS -13.5 (over Rams) - The Cowboys might be a really good team. This isn't a game that will determine that (unless the Rams pull a massive upset). In two weeks, when Dallas gets New England at home (in what is sure to be called a 'Super Bowl Preview' by everybody and their mother), we'll find out how good Dallas is. In this game, Dallas will beat up on an injury-riddled Rams team.

Jets -3.5 (over BILLS) - Can Thomas Jones start scoring touchdowns this week? Of course he will, because I have him benched.

Buccaneers +3 (over PANTHERS) - I may be overrating the Bucs a bit because I want the Seahawks win over them in week 1 to be bigger than it initially seemed. Still, Jeff Garcia appears to be a great fit for Gruden's west coast offense. Also, David Carr is filling in at Quarterback this week. That has to negate at least one big Steve Smith reception, right? The Bucs have a good, if not great, defense, and this game will be close.

49ERS +2.5 (over Seahawks) - Total hedge. The only result that would surprise me would be if the niners blow out the Seahawks.

CARDINALS +6.5 (over Steelers) - I actually think the Cardinals may be a better team than the 49ers, records (and head-to-head match-up) aside. If the Cardinals had pulled out the Monday night game against the 49ers, the Cardinals would be the current NFC West favorite and the 49ers would be answering questions about why they're struggling. The Cardinals played the Ravens tough on the road. The Cardinals will be the toughest team the Steelers have faced this year, and the game is in Arizona. I'm picking the Cardinals to win outright.

CHARGERS -12 (over Chiefs) - Three touchdowns for Tomlinson in this game. If he doesn't go bonkers in this game, how's he going to be any better in others?

COLTS -10 (over Broncos) - I don't buy the Broncos at all. I know they have two great cornerbacks. Great individuals won't stop the Colts' offense. Indianapolis has too many weapons, especially as Anthony Gonzalez heats up.

Eagles -3 (over GIANTS) - Big game for the Eagles. Same for the Giants. Well, that is, if you buy the Giants have a chance at the playoffs. The Eagles looked bad in weeks one and two, and great in week three. Now, consider their opponents in those weeks. How do the Giants compare? They're probably a little worse than the Redskins. Eagles win the game to mediatype cries of "The Eagles are back!!! I never doubted them for a second!"

Patriots -7.5 (over BENGALS) - I'm riding the Patriots until somebody shows the Pats can be held to less than 38 points.

Post-picks note: What in incredible game between Cal and Oregon. The fumble at the goal line: Total karma from the Oklahoma game last year.