NFC Preview - Part 3

Wildcard Tier

9. New York Giants
I’m keeping the Giants low because of two reasons: (1) Tiki Barber is gone. (2) The players tire of Tom Coughlin every year, and I don’t see any reason why this year will be any different. Coughlin is an old-school coach who is incredibly tough on his players – probably the reason Michael Strahan held out for so long. Sure, Strahan wanted more money, but that was just to make the rigors of training camp worth his time. Keeping his normal salary while skipping Coughlin’s training camp is essentially a raise. Coughlin simply wears out his players, and that doesn’t work the highly paid, pampered athletes of today.
I like some of the talent, but I don’t like the attitudes. Shockey, Burress. I think team moral will improve with Tiki Barber gone. Production will slip, but moral will improve. I don’t know why he didn’t catch more heat for speaking out in the press last year. Never mind that he may have been correct in his statements – he wasn’t particularly stately with his decisions to speak out. With Barber gone, Eli Manning will have to step up, both as a player and as a leader, in order for this team to succeed. I see this as a learning year for Manning, with 2008 as his potential breakout season.
One last thing about the Giants playoff hopes. I know they’ve made the playoffs two consecutive years. They also got worked, at home, in 2005, and were gifted the sixth seed in 2006 because nobody else in the weak NFC could take it. The NFC’s 5th through 10th teams have all improved, and the Giants won’t be gifted anything this year.

8. San Francisco
The 49ers have been one of my favorite teams to follow this off-season, just because they’ve become media darlings that are supposed to knock off my Seahawks. Not yet. The niners are definitely moving in the right direction, but they’re not there yet. Alex Smith is on his way, but he still doesn’t have any receivers. Don’t give me Ashley Lelie or Darryl Jackson. Lelie is on his third team for a reason – he’s not worth keeping. Darryl Jackson doesn’t practice. He had some great years in Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck that resulted from a special chemistry built over years. In the same way that Hasselbeck didn’t immediately have that chemistry with Deion Branch, Smith won’t have the chemistry with Jackson (at least not this year). Frank Gore is a stud – so long as he stays healthy. The guy blew out both knees in college. This year he’s starting the season with a broken hand. Some guys just get dinged up. The defense sounds like it’s on its way. I will say this about the Nate Clements signing – why does everybody consider this a good value signing. Yeah, it’s great to have a shutdown corner, but how bad is the cap hit going to hurt them down the road? They must have 20 million or so against this year’s cap (they had the most space of any team), otherwise they’re going to be hamstrung by Clements cap number in future years.

7. Carolina Panthers
Similar to the Seahawks, the Panthers were hit with the injury bug last year. A quick comment on the coverage of injuries in the NFL: NFL coverage seems to echo the machismo that exists among the players and coaches, that injuries are not an excuse for not performing. Now, if you’re a coach, or a player captain, that mindset makes sense – you have to find a way to win, regardless of the circumstances. However, if you’re simply covering the NFL, injuries are a perfectly good reason for not performing. Did the Seahawks talent take a step back last year? No, their MVP running back and pro bowl quarter back all missed significant time, the offensive line started nine different combinations, Marcus Tubbs (the one big DT among Seattle’s undersized defensive line) played five games. When Seattle played in the playoffs, three of their four top CBs were injured and couldn’t play. When you have to sign a mortgage broker to play corner against the Bears in the divisional round of the playoffs, you have a reason for underperforming. The Panthers injuries were a little more under-the-radar. Everybody saw Steve Smith battle through injuries, but others were similarly important, like MLB Dan Morgan. The Panthers are sure to bounce back just by the law of averages keeping them healthier.
What will keep the Panthers down this year is Jake Delhomme. He regressed immensely last year, so much so that there’s chatter David Carr, the once-sacrificial lamb of the Houston Texans, will take his job during the season. If Delhomme can regain his form, the Panthers have a good chance at a wildcard spot. That’s a big if though.

Division Title Tier

Now we move onto teams that will be competing to win their division. Let’s get to it.

6. St. Louis
The big talk around Rams camp is Adam Carriker, the college defensive end getting moved to nose tackle for the Rams 3-4 scheme. I’m not sure how St. Louis scouts looked at a college, 4-3 end and saw an NFL nose tackle, but apparently it’s working out just fine. If the Rams can stop the run, the rest of the defense will fall into place, and then the offense can concentrate on outscoring opponents. St. Louis is loaded with talent on offense. The front office smartly got Marc Bulger’s contract done so that it won’t be a distraction. Steven Jackson could have the best fantasy year of any running back, including Tomlinson. The only concern on offense is age. Isaac Bruce was old last year. Torry Holt has passed 30 and is starting the year with a knee that isn’t completely recovered. Orlando Pace is coming back from an injury. Even Marc Bulger missed games last year. Steven Jackson is the only young star, and he plays the most bruising position of all (though, in his case, he’s giving more bruises than receiving). St. Louis is explosive. They’ll go as far as their defense takes them.

5. Dallas Cowboys
I keep flipping between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Ultimately I’m putting the Cowboys lower because they have more questions about their team. How will Wade Phillips, and the new coaching staff on the whole, affect the team? Has the league figured out Tony Romo (like they did at the end of last season) or will Romo figure out the league? Will their aging, star receivers continue to be productive (and will Terrell Owens hold onto the ball this year)? Will the secondary give up big plays like 2006? (note to optimistic Cowboy fan: Ken Hamlin was one of the reasons the Seahawks gave up so many big plays). Lots of questions here. The Cowboys could be good enough to make a Super Bowl run, or they could fall apart and miss the playoffs entirely. I’m putting them right in the middle.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were probably in the Playoff Bye tier... then Jeremiah Trotter was released. That chink in the armor started chatter about the Eagles defense getting old, and led to Donovan McNabb popping off again, as he (and his mom) has been apt to do in the time since Jeff Garcia took over after his last injury. The Eagles have talent, and are getting back two huge players in McNabb and Jevon Kearse. The Eagles, though, are old, and are due to drop off eventually. I’ve heard chatter that their locker room still suffers from the divide created by Terrell Owens two years ago. Donovan McNabb was chosen to lead the team past that, but he hasn’t finished either of the past two season. When healthy, the Eagles can play with anybody in the NFC. I don’t think they’ll stay healthy.