Week 3

I attended my first NFL game this weekend. Seahawks-Bengals. It was a heckuva game between two teams that, as of week three, don't have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Bengals are essentially a more extreme version of the Seahawks - great offense, weak defense. It pains me to say that the Seahawks don't have a chance at winning the Super Bowl, but they haven't shown me anything that would make me believe. From what I can see, the Seahawks need better production from Shaun Alexander, the offensive line, and the run defense (they had a nice game going against Rudy Johnson, then Kenny Watson came in and blew up the defense for 60-some yards on 10 carries). Anyway, big game against the 49ers in week four for the Seahawks. The niners swept the season series against the hawks last year, and, if you go by record, are the greatest threat to the Seahawks in the division. And, again, LA CBS and FOX aren't showing the game, so I'll be at a sports bar on Sunday.

What stood out to me in week three was the tempered amount of surprise as compared to weeks two and three. What that says is that expectations for teams have roughly settled. I found myself looking at divisional standings and wondering how they ranked. So I'm going to rank them.

1. AFC South
Besides having one really good team (Indianapolis), the AFC South has three teams that have (thus far) lived up to expectations, with the possible exception of the Jaguars and their loss was to a surprisingly good Titans team. Just to further cement the AFC South as the best division, the combined out-of-division record of all AFC South teams is 6-0. No other division is better than 4-2. The AFC South is going to be one big dogfight for one of the wildcard spots. Justice would be for both wildcards to come from the AFC South.

1. Colts - Who thought their win over the Saints would be less impressive than wins over the Titans and Texans?
2. Texans - Andre Johnson needs to get/stay healthy in order for them to stay above the Titans and Jaguars, but this team looks good.
3. Titans - Apparently the Titans have a real running game. The Titans are the new Falcons.
4. Jaguars - Weak wins against Atlanta and Denver will only get you fourth in this division.

2. NFC East
What makes this division strong is the emergence of Washington as a wildcard contender. As Philly showed against the Lions, they're still a good team that needs to be taken seriously. McNabb's performances will improve as he gets healthy throughout the year. The Eagles defense is young, meaning that unit has a good chance of finishing stronger than they started. The question with the Eagles is whether they can whether the early-season storm of losses. However, the Redskins beat them, and the confidence bump from that game is all a young quarterback like Jason Campbell needs to rally off some wins. Dallas looked great against Chicago, but Dallas still hasn't played a team can exploit their defense. Actually, they have - the Giants dropped 35 on them. Unfortunately for the Giants, their defense was even worse and gave up 45 points. The mediatypes that love the Cowboys at the moment are forgetting about the Giants game.

1. Cowboys - Has Romo figured out the league? He's playing well.
2. Eagles - I know they lost to the Redskins. I'm still picking the Eagles to have a chance against the big boys in the league. I'm looking forward to the first Eagles-Cowboys game.
3. Redskins - Lots of talent finally playing up to their potential.
4. Giants - Injuries have just wrecked this team. Manning is playing well, though.

3. AFC North
This was my preseason pick as strongest division. However, I thought the strength would come from Baltimore and Cincinnati. As it turns out, the Steelers are back and the Ravens and Bengals have a bunch of questions. This doesn't make this division bad, just not at the top. If the AFC South doesn't get both wildcards, the second wildcard should come from this division.

1. Steelers - I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to the Seahawks game against the Steelers in week five. Part of this is that I won't fully buy into the Steelers until I see them for myself. The other part is that, since I don't fully buy into the Steelers, I think there's still a chance for the Steelers to be exposed... and the Seahawks are the perfect team to do so.
2. Ravens - Fans must be thanking their lucky stars that Kyle Boller is a serviceable replacement for Steve McNair, who, surprise surprise, can't stay healthy.
3. Bengals - The Bengals are the new Colts - incredible quarterback and two pro-bowl-caliber receivers, and no defense.
4. Browns - I can't get over the Browns being a blocked field goal away from being 2-1.

4. NFC North
I'm loving the new Packers - Brett Favre leading a bunch of youngin's to a 3-0 record. I'd heard rumors the Pack was back, but now I believe. One of the reasons the Eagles and the Chargers are 'struggling' at the moment is because they were both beat by the Packers. When do the Packers play the Bears? That game has 6-3 written all over it. The Bears, meanwhile, are getting what comes around. That Super Bowl window has slammed shut and will remain locked until they find a viable replacement for Grossman. I've been saying Grossman was horrible from the start of last season. Any reasonable person could see the guy took a ton of chances with his throws and happened to get all of the breaks early on. Now it's all caught up with him, and I'm going to love every minute of the Bears struggling.

1. Packers - How great would it be to see a playoff game at Lambo this year? Brett Favre is definitely playing in 2008, sans a Super Bowl victory.
2. Bears - Ironically, the Bears probably have more potential in a single game with Grossman than with Griese (because Rex could have one of his monster games), but over an entire season he's going to kill the team.
3. Lions - It only took three games for their defense to be exposed. Too bad the Lions can't play the Vikings and Raiders every week.
4. Vikings - This season won't be a waste so long as Tarvaris Jackson uses it as a developmental season. If he's injured, then the whole thing will be a negative.

5. AFC West
I'd like to say I'm not surprised by the Chargers' early struggles, except that I am. That team seemingly has so much talent, how can it be 1-2? And it's not so much its record as how it has played. I've heard that the defense is taking a step back because the new defensive coordinator doesn't scheme as well (or as aggressively) as Wade Phillips did. All I know is that I was happy with my pick of the Chargers D for my fantasy team, and I'm going to drop them this week. Denver's luck finally ran out. That team really should be 0-3, yet they're the frontrunners in the division. The Raiders and the Chiefs... I don't know, they just look mediocre.

1. Chargers - Despite the record (and consider the teams they've played), I'll keep them at the top until they get three divisional games in.
2. Broncos - Young team. Sounds like Cutler isn't quite ready yet.
3. Raiders - Something needs to change with regard to calling timeouts right before game-winning field goals. It's one thing to ice a kicker as he's taking his steps. It's another to do it a split-second before the snap.
4. Chiefs - Where's LJ?

6. NFC West
This division isn't nearly as competitive as it was initially made out to be. I think most of that is due to the vast overrating of the Rams. I've been harping on the point of Orlando Pace being one of the most vital cogs of the offense, but Orlando Pace doesn't play a down on defense. I hate that I bought into the mediatypes belief that Adam Carriker would be a run-stopping savior. The 49ers look like a poor man's Broncos. The Steelers exposed their smoke-and-mirrors 2-0 record with a 37-16 beat down. They didn't look particularly impressive when I watched them on MNF in week one. I've heard Alex Smith is at best as good as he was last year, and some have said he's regressed to his rookie year. The team that has looked the best to me (outside of the Seahawks) is the Cardinals, who easily could have beaten San Francisco in week one, and did a hell of a lot better than 37-16 against Baltimore (albeit through the benching of Matt Leinart). Of course, the Cardinals are sitting at 1-2 and are looking at the Steelers in week four, and a 1-3 start will be tough to recover from and make the playoffs. And that leaves Seattle, the one team in the division everybody is sleeping on. You know what hasn't been talked about this year? Mike Holmgren's offense typically takes 4-5 weeks to get going. The defense, minus the 17-point blitzing the Cardinals put on them, is fine. The Seahawks have three big games in a row: San Francisco next week, which would put them atop the division; at Pittsburgh the following week, which will likely be their toughest opponent all season (and likely is a national FOX game), and New Orleans in a Sunday Night game the third week. If all three of those games are won, Seattle has to be considered the frontrunner in the NFC.

1. Seahawks - I'm such a homer
2. Cardinals - Lots of talent. The offensive line looks good, finally.
3. 49ers - Just waiting for the Seahawks to pull the carpet out from under them.
4. Rams - Steven Jackson just got hurt. Season over.

7. NFC South
The NFC South is playing out like it should have last year: Carolina is on top, Tampa is challenging, and New Orleans is back in the cellar. I've seen Carolina ranked has high as seven in some power rankings, and sometimes ahead of the Seahawks. Really? With Delhomme as your quarterback? Sounds like he's hurt his elbow, so we might see David Carr soon. I'm not sure what the bigger surprise is - Tampa winning or New Orleans losing. I guess Jeff Garcia's presence is proof of how valuable a good quarterback can be. Garcia-Williams-Galloway is a nice trio (though Williams got hurt again - ribs from the Seahawks game. Can he ever stay healthy?). For the Saints, it seems that reality has caught up to them. Strangely, their receivers don't look nearly as formidable without Joe Horn as their leader. Reggie Bush has gone back to early-rookie-Reggie-Bush. Their secondary is still getting torched. Their greatest problem, though, may be their offensive line. Now that McCallister is out for the season with an ACL injury, this team will be lucky to get to six wins

1. Panthers - I love watching Steve Smith outrun everybody.
2. Buccaneers - The week one victory by the Seahawks looks pretty damn good now.
3. Saints - Does Reggie Bush fit in the NFL? He's too short to be a receiver, too small to be a primary running back, and has no experience as a defensive back. He's an obvious physical specimen, but how can that be utilized to take advantage of that?
4. Falcons - Any chance DeAngelo Hall regresses without Jim Mora as a coach? Yelling at his new coach won't help.

8. AFC East
This division is so bad that it can have the best team in the league and still finish well below the second-worst division. Buffalo has regressed. The Jets may have stabilized themselves with their week three win, but they don't look like a playoff team. Miami doesn't look any good either. Outside of the Patriots this division has one win. The unfortunate part is that the Patriots won't be tested in their division, which deprives us fans of great Patriots-Anybody match-ups. The Chargers game was a dud. The upcoming Cincinnati game will show us what kind of defense the Patriots have. Games against the Steelers and the Ravens, whenever those are, will be a test of their defense (the Chargers defense looks to be significantly worse than last year, so I don't count that as a test). And, of course, there's the yearly game against the Colts.

1. Patriots - Say hello to the new Yankees.
2. Jets - Thomas Jones can start scoring touchdowns any time now. Last week's 110 yards was a nice start.
3. Dolphins - Jason Taylor as wide receiver? Time to go watch the highlights.
4. Bills - I can't believe I thought Lee Evans was going to have a monster year. I should have drafted Andre Johnson.