Week 2 Picks

Officially for the season I am 0-1 with my picks (I picked the Thursday-night opening game). Unofficially, I also went 6-9 on the rest of the games, but I picked those on Friday and meant to review them before posting them. I never reviewed my picks, and thus I never posted them. And that's probably for the best, because I didn't do too well. Week 1 is also a poor week to pick, because so little is actually known about each team. Anyway, I'll put myself at 0-1 for the season, and do my picks while sipping some wine and watching USC-Nebraska.

(Lines taken from newbodog.com at 9pm PST. Yeah, that means the USC-Nebraska game is Tivo-ed).

STEELERS -10 (over Bills)
The Steelers won big in week 1. Now they get their home opener and their crowd is going to be crazy. The Bills will have to punch Pittsburgh in the mouth immediately to quiet the crowd and keep the game close. I expect the Bills to be low on emotion after a tough week of dealing with the Everett injury. Look for the Steelers to win big again and jump to fifth on everyone's power rankings.

Bengals -7.5 (over BROWNS)
Any chance the Browns play well? No, not yet. Best reason to watch this game - Chad Johnson touchdown celebration #2. I was disappointed with the jacket from week 1. It wasn't bad, just not what it was built up to be. Second best reason to watch this game - Cleveland crowd calling for Brady Quinn in the first quarter.

Colts -7.5 (over TITANS)
This is the AM game I'm watching tomorrow. Admittedly it's the only game available in the AM in the Los Angeles market (still pissed I couldn't get Directv HD), and I wasn't excited when I first saw it on the schedule, but I've since warmed up to it. Most of all, I want a second look at the Colts defense. Was it really as fast as I saw in that first game? Let's see them chase Vince Young around for four quarters. If they can chase him down, then maybe they are that fast. For now, you can't pick against the Colts with a team that was a little too surprisingly good in week 1. That and the Titans don't have their best corner (the infamous Pacman Jones). Instead they have Nick Harper. That's an odd parallel with week 1.

Texans +7 (over PANTHERS)
The Texans look like a team that could put up a bunch of points this year. Carolina could be a good team, but they'll need a few more games to convince me they're back. The Texans will at least keep it close

49ers +3 (over RAMS)
As much as I ripped on the 49ers for their week one performance, their secondary did a great job of shutting down Boldin and Fitzgerald. They have two great corners and at least one good safety. Drew Bennett is still hurt (actually probable, so he may play), which gives Bulger just two dangerous receivers. The more important injury is the one that put Orlando Pace on IR after week 1. As I said before, Pace went down last year and the Rams tanked. Gotta believe the niners will win this one outright (though if their defense isn't as good as everyone thinks, this will be the week it gets exposed).

GIANTS -2.5 (over Packers)
Will Manning play? That's the big question, because if that stocky lefty plays, the line probably shifts by about 10 points. Brandon Jacobs is out for the Giants, but I was impressed with Ward showed in relief (and sure enough, he's getting the start). My first instinct was to go with Packers and the points, but then I figured the Giants won't muff two punts and give the Packers 10 points. The line is close enough that the Giants can cover with a field goal, so I'll go with them.

JAGUARS -10.5 (over Falcons)
The Falcons looked bad last week. Any chance they've fixed it in a week? Naw. The Jaguars got embarrassed last week. They'll come out firing this week.

Saints -4.5 (over BUCCANEERS)
This game has special interest to me, as the Seahawks played the bucs last week and it will provide a bit of comparison between the Seahawks and the Saints. The Saints were horrible in week 1, and a voice in the back of my head is telling me that wasn't completely an aberration. That secondary is still bad, and the linebackers look suspect. The Saints had a special year last year. Their seventh-round pick, Colston, had a great year. Their week three Monday night game against the Falcons started their emotional momentum snowballing and they never looked back. So, was 2006 a typical year for the talent New Orleans has, or was it an everybody-has-a-career-year year? If the Saints don't whop the Cowboys late in the season in primetime are they thought of as highly? And after saying all of that, I'm still picking the Saints to cover on the road.

LIONS -3.5 (over Vikings)
The Vikings got two touchdowns on interceptions (off Joey Harrington, no less), and got their third when Adrian Peterson took a short pass 60 yards for a score. The final score looked impressive, but don't believe the hype. The Lions, on the other hand, put up a ton of points on the road. Antoine Winfield can pick one receiver to cover. That leaves two more for the rest of the defense. The Lions are going to put up a bunch of points and I don't see the Vikings matching them.

DOLPHINS +4 (over Cowboys)
This may seem like an odd pick, but consider the following: The Cowboys are missing two key defenders (Ellis and Newman (I know he's only questionable, but even if he plays he can't be close to 100% effective)) and one of their two important receivers (Glenn). So, the Cowboys will have to rely on their running game against a Dolphins defense with three big stars in their front seven. The Cowboys secondary looks susceptible to big pass plays. Look for a close, low scoring game. I don't expect the Dolphins to win, but they're a home 'dog being given more than a field goal. At least, that's the logic.

Seahawks -3 (over CARDINALS)
I don't think my Seahawks should ever be taken seriously. While I understand they're going to lose some games this year, I'll probably pick them to win outright, if not cover, every week. With that said, Arizona is coming off a short week after looking horrible on Monday night. Shaun Alexander always has big games and Seattle looks ready to explode. Go Hawks!

Jets +10 (over RAVENS)
This is way too many points to give the Jets, even if they're on the road. The Jets aren't as bad as they looked against the Patriots, and the Ravens definitely do not deserve to be given 10 points against anybody but the absolute worst. The Ravens don't have the kind of offense that can put up points fast so I have to believe the Jets will keep it close.

Raiders +10 (over BRONCOS)
How good are the Broncos? As of yet, not good enough to blow a team out. For this game I'm counting on the 36 points given up by the Raiders last week as a fluke/bad week. The Raiders defense should be good, and their offense (which I think should be starting Culpepper) can keep it within 10.

BEARS -13 (over Chiefs)
This game scares me some, because I really don't know how good, or bad, the Bears' offense is. All it takes is for Grossman to hit Berrian on a couple deep routes and the Bears can pile up some points. Chicago's defense looked great last week, especially against the run, which is basically all the Chiefs have. The Chiefs could easily get shut out. So the question then becomes can the Bears get two touchdowns? Yeah, I think so.

Chargers +4 (over PATRIOTS)
I'm definitely watching this game. These two teams are pretty even - San Diego with a slightly better defense, New England with a slightly better offense. I have a gut feeling Maroney is going to get stuffed a bunch and Tomlinson will break out. Moss is going to be doubled, and San Diego at least has the corners to run with him. The Patriots could well win, but not by much.

EAGLES -7 (over Redskins)
I don't have much to say about this game other than home teams play well on Monday night. The Eagles had a bunch of mistakes last week (the returner that muffed the punt return at the end of the game got cut), and I expect those to be fixed this week. Unless Portis and Betts run all over the Eagles' defense, Philadelphia should win by a sizable margin.

Last note: USC looks good. East coasters, midwesterners, and southerners need to stop dogging USC. They beat every major conference team they play, and often times win big. They could well equal the 50 they put up on Arkansas last year. Currently it's 42-10 with 5 minutes left in the third quarter. Yeah, SC is good.