While it’s nice to get the bottom-of-the-barrel teams out of the way, the teams just above them aren’t much better. The playoff long shots are teams that I think have to have everything go right just to have a chance at a playoff spot. The wildcard teams won’t challenge in their division, but will reasonably have a shot at a wildcard berth.
Longshot Tier
12. Arizona
A week or two ago I got halfway through writing a post about how to bet to win money with the current Super Bowl odds. The post didn’t make it to completion because it morphed into a lesson on financial markets as seen through betting NFL teams, and that was just ridiculous. To summarize in a sentence, I basically ruled out all of the teams that I thought had no chance of winning the Super Bowl, then spread out my available money such that I would at least break even so long as any of those teams won. What’s relevant about that post was that every team I picked as a potential winner had at least 20-1 odds… except for the Cardinals, which were at 75-1 odds. Why was I willing to put money on the Cardinals? Well, the Cardinals seem to have a ton of talent that the previous coaching staff couldn’t properly harness. Their offensive line was especially atrocious. This year, the Cardinals have all new coaches, which gives them an x-factor for the year. Furthermore, the new head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, and assistant Russ Grimm were architects of the 2005 Steelers offensive line that led them to a Super Bowl victory. In my mind, there is a remote possibility that the Cardinals could explode.
However, in the end, this is still the Cardinals. I don’t expect Whisenhunt to have an effect like Mangini or Payton, at least not in 2007. Losing is a tough habit to break, especially when it’s ingrained in an organization like the Cardinals.
11. Green Bay
I’ve heard that Green Bay’s defense is supposed to be pretty good. If Green Bay is going to do anything this year, their defense is going to have to seriously limit points scored on it, because I don’t see Green Bay’s offense doing much at all. They have no running back, one established wide receiver (who will be starting the season hurt, albeit playing), and a quarterback with a “when the going gets tough, the tough throw interceptions” mentality. I know the Packers put up 48 against Seattle in the preseason, but any game where Aaron Rodgers goes 10/16 for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns is obviously a skewed data point. Green Bay will have to show me something for real before I can move them any higher.
10. Detroit
The funny thing is that I did an NFC North preview and tried to reason my way into picking Detroit over Chicago. So how have things changed? The injury to Tatum Bell hurt the Lions some. Three good-to-great wideouts won’t do you any good if you can’t run the ball. Mostly, though, it’s that I keep hearing bad things about Detroit’s defense. Like Green Bay, I’ll have to see some production before I move them higher.
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