Week 4 Picks

Another sub-par week last week. I went 5-8 with three draws, bringing the season total to 10-20. That's a nice batting average, but a poor betting average. Well, that's the past, and we'll move onto the present.

Pre-picks note: Currently watching the Cal-Oregon game. Some thoughts:

• For whatever reason, ABC isn't showing the game in HD. Does Oregon's stadium not have HD cameras? Their funded by Phil Knight. They play with uniforms made of money. How can that stadium not have HD cameras?
• Oregon has a stud running back in Jonathan Stewart. I have no idea what his career numbers are, or what kind of run defense call has, but this guy passes the eye test. Of course, the most impressive athletes on the field are the receivers for Cal.
• This was a perfect game until Oregon fumbled the kickoff. Thankfully Cal did nothing and had to punt. At this moment Cal is up 24-17 but Oregon just completed a big pass to get into the redzone. 8 minutes left though. Even if Oregon scores, Cal will have plenty of time to drive for the winning score. I'm sure I'll have a final at the end of this post.

Raiders +4 (over DOLPHINS) - I think I heard Culpepper is playing this week. Love the revenge factor. I also don't like the fins. I'm picking the Dolphins to win a close one, but not to cover.

FALCONS +3 (over Texans) - Andre Johnson is out, and the Texans running backs are beat up. The Falcons have to win at some point, so why not take the points in a home game? If the Texans happen to lose this game, their playoff chances will be dealt a big blow.

BROWNS +4.5 (over Ravens) - Another revenge game: Jamal Lewis takes on his former team's defense. Actually, this is a double whammy - the old Browns return to play the new Browns. I don't think the Browns are bad enough to get blown out, nor do I think the Ravens are good enough to blow out the Browns.

LIONS +3 (over Bears) - Here's the story of this game: For the Bears, Vasher is doubtful, Tillman and Archuleta are questionable, and Mike Brown is out for the season. The Bears' opening-day starting secondary will be either hurt or out for the game. The Bears also have a bunch of other (possibly playable) injuries to key players (Briggs, Harris, Ogunleye, Urlacher), but the injuries in the secondary are key. Detroit's offense is all about Kitna throwing to Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson (questionable), and Mike Furrey. I know the Lions got destroyed by the Eagles last week. That doesn't concern me. The Bears are starting the Brian Griese era this week, and their running game is more than suspect. I foresee blowout that will signal the Bears jumping the shark.

VIKINGS +3 (over Packers) - This game is all about Adrian Peterson vs. the Packers' front seven. I think this is the week where the Packers' lack of a run game will catch up with them.

COWBOYS -13.5 (over Rams) - The Cowboys might be a really good team. This isn't a game that will determine that (unless the Rams pull a massive upset). In two weeks, when Dallas gets New England at home (in what is sure to be called a 'Super Bowl Preview' by everybody and their mother), we'll find out how good Dallas is. In this game, Dallas will beat up on an injury-riddled Rams team.

Jets -3.5 (over BILLS) - Can Thomas Jones start scoring touchdowns this week? Of course he will, because I have him benched.

Buccaneers +3 (over PANTHERS) - I may be overrating the Bucs a bit because I want the Seahawks win over them in week 1 to be bigger than it initially seemed. Still, Jeff Garcia appears to be a great fit for Gruden's west coast offense. Also, David Carr is filling in at Quarterback this week. That has to negate at least one big Steve Smith reception, right? The Bucs have a good, if not great, defense, and this game will be close.

49ERS +2.5 (over Seahawks) - Total hedge. The only result that would surprise me would be if the niners blow out the Seahawks.

CARDINALS +6.5 (over Steelers) - I actually think the Cardinals may be a better team than the 49ers, records (and head-to-head match-up) aside. If the Cardinals had pulled out the Monday night game against the 49ers, the Cardinals would be the current NFC West favorite and the 49ers would be answering questions about why they're struggling. The Cardinals played the Ravens tough on the road. The Cardinals will be the toughest team the Steelers have faced this year, and the game is in Arizona. I'm picking the Cardinals to win outright.

CHARGERS -12 (over Chiefs) - Three touchdowns for Tomlinson in this game. If he doesn't go bonkers in this game, how's he going to be any better in others?

COLTS -10 (over Broncos) - I don't buy the Broncos at all. I know they have two great cornerbacks. Great individuals won't stop the Colts' offense. Indianapolis has too many weapons, especially as Anthony Gonzalez heats up.

Eagles -3 (over GIANTS) - Big game for the Eagles. Same for the Giants. Well, that is, if you buy the Giants have a chance at the playoffs. The Eagles looked bad in weeks one and two, and great in week three. Now, consider their opponents in those weeks. How do the Giants compare? They're probably a little worse than the Redskins. Eagles win the game to mediatype cries of "The Eagles are back!!! I never doubted them for a second!"

Patriots -7.5 (over BENGALS) - I'm riding the Patriots until somebody shows the Pats can be held to less than 38 points.

Post-picks note: What in incredible game between Cal and Oregon. The fumble at the goal line: Total karma from the Oklahoma game last year.

Week 3

I attended my first NFL game this weekend. Seahawks-Bengals. It was a heckuva game between two teams that, as of week three, don't have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Bengals are essentially a more extreme version of the Seahawks - great offense, weak defense. It pains me to say that the Seahawks don't have a chance at winning the Super Bowl, but they haven't shown me anything that would make me believe. From what I can see, the Seahawks need better production from Shaun Alexander, the offensive line, and the run defense (they had a nice game going against Rudy Johnson, then Kenny Watson came in and blew up the defense for 60-some yards on 10 carries). Anyway, big game against the 49ers in week four for the Seahawks. The niners swept the season series against the hawks last year, and, if you go by record, are the greatest threat to the Seahawks in the division. And, again, LA CBS and FOX aren't showing the game, so I'll be at a sports bar on Sunday.

What stood out to me in week three was the tempered amount of surprise as compared to weeks two and three. What that says is that expectations for teams have roughly settled. I found myself looking at divisional standings and wondering how they ranked. So I'm going to rank them.

1. AFC South
Besides having one really good team (Indianapolis), the AFC South has three teams that have (thus far) lived up to expectations, with the possible exception of the Jaguars and their loss was to a surprisingly good Titans team. Just to further cement the AFC South as the best division, the combined out-of-division record of all AFC South teams is 6-0. No other division is better than 4-2. The AFC South is going to be one big dogfight for one of the wildcard spots. Justice would be for both wildcards to come from the AFC South.

1. Colts - Who thought their win over the Saints would be less impressive than wins over the Titans and Texans?
2. Texans - Andre Johnson needs to get/stay healthy in order for them to stay above the Titans and Jaguars, but this team looks good.
3. Titans - Apparently the Titans have a real running game. The Titans are the new Falcons.
4. Jaguars - Weak wins against Atlanta and Denver will only get you fourth in this division.

2. NFC East
What makes this division strong is the emergence of Washington as a wildcard contender. As Philly showed against the Lions, they're still a good team that needs to be taken seriously. McNabb's performances will improve as he gets healthy throughout the year. The Eagles defense is young, meaning that unit has a good chance of finishing stronger than they started. The question with the Eagles is whether they can whether the early-season storm of losses. However, the Redskins beat them, and the confidence bump from that game is all a young quarterback like Jason Campbell needs to rally off some wins. Dallas looked great against Chicago, but Dallas still hasn't played a team can exploit their defense. Actually, they have - the Giants dropped 35 on them. Unfortunately for the Giants, their defense was even worse and gave up 45 points. The mediatypes that love the Cowboys at the moment are forgetting about the Giants game.

1. Cowboys - Has Romo figured out the league? He's playing well.
2. Eagles - I know they lost to the Redskins. I'm still picking the Eagles to have a chance against the big boys in the league. I'm looking forward to the first Eagles-Cowboys game.
3. Redskins - Lots of talent finally playing up to their potential.
4. Giants - Injuries have just wrecked this team. Manning is playing well, though.

3. AFC North
This was my preseason pick as strongest division. However, I thought the strength would come from Baltimore and Cincinnati. As it turns out, the Steelers are back and the Ravens and Bengals have a bunch of questions. This doesn't make this division bad, just not at the top. If the AFC South doesn't get both wildcards, the second wildcard should come from this division.

1. Steelers - I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to the Seahawks game against the Steelers in week five. Part of this is that I won't fully buy into the Steelers until I see them for myself. The other part is that, since I don't fully buy into the Steelers, I think there's still a chance for the Steelers to be exposed... and the Seahawks are the perfect team to do so.
2. Ravens - Fans must be thanking their lucky stars that Kyle Boller is a serviceable replacement for Steve McNair, who, surprise surprise, can't stay healthy.
3. Bengals - The Bengals are the new Colts - incredible quarterback and two pro-bowl-caliber receivers, and no defense.
4. Browns - I can't get over the Browns being a blocked field goal away from being 2-1.

4. NFC North
I'm loving the new Packers - Brett Favre leading a bunch of youngin's to a 3-0 record. I'd heard rumors the Pack was back, but now I believe. One of the reasons the Eagles and the Chargers are 'struggling' at the moment is because they were both beat by the Packers. When do the Packers play the Bears? That game has 6-3 written all over it. The Bears, meanwhile, are getting what comes around. That Super Bowl window has slammed shut and will remain locked until they find a viable replacement for Grossman. I've been saying Grossman was horrible from the start of last season. Any reasonable person could see the guy took a ton of chances with his throws and happened to get all of the breaks early on. Now it's all caught up with him, and I'm going to love every minute of the Bears struggling.

1. Packers - How great would it be to see a playoff game at Lambo this year? Brett Favre is definitely playing in 2008, sans a Super Bowl victory.
2. Bears - Ironically, the Bears probably have more potential in a single game with Grossman than with Griese (because Rex could have one of his monster games), but over an entire season he's going to kill the team.
3. Lions - It only took three games for their defense to be exposed. Too bad the Lions can't play the Vikings and Raiders every week.
4. Vikings - This season won't be a waste so long as Tarvaris Jackson uses it as a developmental season. If he's injured, then the whole thing will be a negative.

5. AFC West
I'd like to say I'm not surprised by the Chargers' early struggles, except that I am. That team seemingly has so much talent, how can it be 1-2? And it's not so much its record as how it has played. I've heard that the defense is taking a step back because the new defensive coordinator doesn't scheme as well (or as aggressively) as Wade Phillips did. All I know is that I was happy with my pick of the Chargers D for my fantasy team, and I'm going to drop them this week. Denver's luck finally ran out. That team really should be 0-3, yet they're the frontrunners in the division. The Raiders and the Chiefs... I don't know, they just look mediocre.

1. Chargers - Despite the record (and consider the teams they've played), I'll keep them at the top until they get three divisional games in.
2. Broncos - Young team. Sounds like Cutler isn't quite ready yet.
3. Raiders - Something needs to change with regard to calling timeouts right before game-winning field goals. It's one thing to ice a kicker as he's taking his steps. It's another to do it a split-second before the snap.
4. Chiefs - Where's LJ?

6. NFC West
This division isn't nearly as competitive as it was initially made out to be. I think most of that is due to the vast overrating of the Rams. I've been harping on the point of Orlando Pace being one of the most vital cogs of the offense, but Orlando Pace doesn't play a down on defense. I hate that I bought into the mediatypes belief that Adam Carriker would be a run-stopping savior. The 49ers look like a poor man's Broncos. The Steelers exposed their smoke-and-mirrors 2-0 record with a 37-16 beat down. They didn't look particularly impressive when I watched them on MNF in week one. I've heard Alex Smith is at best as good as he was last year, and some have said he's regressed to his rookie year. The team that has looked the best to me (outside of the Seahawks) is the Cardinals, who easily could have beaten San Francisco in week one, and did a hell of a lot better than 37-16 against Baltimore (albeit through the benching of Matt Leinart). Of course, the Cardinals are sitting at 1-2 and are looking at the Steelers in week four, and a 1-3 start will be tough to recover from and make the playoffs. And that leaves Seattle, the one team in the division everybody is sleeping on. You know what hasn't been talked about this year? Mike Holmgren's offense typically takes 4-5 weeks to get going. The defense, minus the 17-point blitzing the Cardinals put on them, is fine. The Seahawks have three big games in a row: San Francisco next week, which would put them atop the division; at Pittsburgh the following week, which will likely be their toughest opponent all season (and likely is a national FOX game), and New Orleans in a Sunday Night game the third week. If all three of those games are won, Seattle has to be considered the frontrunner in the NFC.

1. Seahawks - I'm such a homer
2. Cardinals - Lots of talent. The offensive line looks good, finally.
3. 49ers - Just waiting for the Seahawks to pull the carpet out from under them.
4. Rams - Steven Jackson just got hurt. Season over.

7. NFC South
The NFC South is playing out like it should have last year: Carolina is on top, Tampa is challenging, and New Orleans is back in the cellar. I've seen Carolina ranked has high as seven in some power rankings, and sometimes ahead of the Seahawks. Really? With Delhomme as your quarterback? Sounds like he's hurt his elbow, so we might see David Carr soon. I'm not sure what the bigger surprise is - Tampa winning or New Orleans losing. I guess Jeff Garcia's presence is proof of how valuable a good quarterback can be. Garcia-Williams-Galloway is a nice trio (though Williams got hurt again - ribs from the Seahawks game. Can he ever stay healthy?). For the Saints, it seems that reality has caught up to them. Strangely, their receivers don't look nearly as formidable without Joe Horn as their leader. Reggie Bush has gone back to early-rookie-Reggie-Bush. Their secondary is still getting torched. Their greatest problem, though, may be their offensive line. Now that McCallister is out for the season with an ACL injury, this team will be lucky to get to six wins

1. Panthers - I love watching Steve Smith outrun everybody.
2. Buccaneers - The week one victory by the Seahawks looks pretty damn good now.
3. Saints - Does Reggie Bush fit in the NFL? He's too short to be a receiver, too small to be a primary running back, and has no experience as a defensive back. He's an obvious physical specimen, but how can that be utilized to take advantage of that?
4. Falcons - Any chance DeAngelo Hall regresses without Jim Mora as a coach? Yelling at his new coach won't help.

8. AFC East
This division is so bad that it can have the best team in the league and still finish well below the second-worst division. Buffalo has regressed. The Jets may have stabilized themselves with their week three win, but they don't look like a playoff team. Miami doesn't look any good either. Outside of the Patriots this division has one win. The unfortunate part is that the Patriots won't be tested in their division, which deprives us fans of great Patriots-Anybody match-ups. The Chargers game was a dud. The upcoming Cincinnati game will show us what kind of defense the Patriots have. Games against the Steelers and the Ravens, whenever those are, will be a test of their defense (the Chargers defense looks to be significantly worse than last year, so I don't count that as a test). And, of course, there's the yearly game against the Colts.

1. Patriots - Say hello to the new Yankees.
2. Jets - Thomas Jones can start scoring touchdowns any time now. Last week's 110 yards was a nice start.
3. Dolphins - Jason Taylor as wide receiver? Time to go watch the highlights.
4. Bills - I can't believe I thought Lee Evans was going to have a monster year. I should have drafted Andre Johnson.

Week 3 picks

Tough week last week - 5-11, bringing my season total to 5-12. Glad I'm not actually betting. Let's do week 3, quick style:

Colts -6.5 (over TEXANS) - No Andre Johnson, no way to keep up in a shoot-out.

PACKERS +6 (over Chargers) - I am really high on the Packers and really low on the Chargers. Give me six points at Lambo. (btw, I'm totally hedging this one, because I have Tomlinson on my fantasy team, and he's totally due).

Vikings +3 (over CHIEFS) - Who on the Chiefs is going to stop Adrian Peterson? I don't care that Tarvaris Jackson (finally got that name spelled correctly) is injured. The Vikings should just direct-snap to Peterson every time.

Lions +6 (over EAGLES) - Kitna is supposed to be recovered from his concussion in week 2. McNabb doesn't look completely healthy, Brian Westbrook is supposedly having knee trouble, and the Lions have an explosive offense that is bound to bring this game back within six points by games end.

Bills +17 (over PATRIOTS) - No way the Patriots go balls out and blow out another team, right? Both of their past two victories have been by 24 points. Even if their up by that much near the end of the game, one quick Bills touchdown will push.

JETS -3 (over Dolphins) - Jets feel like they've been playing under their heads thus far, and the Dolphins just suck. And Zach Thomas is out.

STEELERS -9 (over 49ers) - The niners have looked... average at best. The Steelers look great (#3 behind the two obvious teams). The Steelers are at home. Blow out. At least, I'm hoping that's what will happen to an NFC West foe.

Cardinals +8 (over RAVENS) - The Ravens haven't played well enough to justify getting 8 points, even at home. The Cardinals are explosive enough to keep the game within a touchdown.

RAMS +3.5 (over Buccaneers) - Seems that the Bucs have overachieved and the Rams have underachieved. The Rams can't possibly be as bad as they've played, right?

BRONCOS -3.5 (over Jaguars) - Broncos at home finally play up to their potential. Jaguars continue to play down.

SEAHAWKS -3 (over Bengals) - Homer pick that was confirmed after listening to an hour of Cincinnati sports radio. Apparently their defense is beyond horrible.

RAIDERS -3 (over Browns) - Let down week for the Browns. Raiders break through and win a game they're supposed to.

Panthers -4.5 (over FALCONS) - I can't possibly go with the Falcons. End of story.

REDSKINS -4 (over Giants) - I almost picked the Giants. Then I thought about how I'd feel tomorrow when the redskins are up 14-0 in the second quarter.

Cowboys +3 (over BEARS) - This is total wishful thinking. I so want the bears to be bad...

SAINTS -4 (over Titans) - 0-2 Saints will definitely come out firing.

Week 2

Alright, the day of mourning for that disastrous Seahawks loss has passed.  Time to review week two.

Week two is always fun in its aftermath because national pundits go nuts over teams that are 2-0 (superbowl!!!) and 0-2 (disastrous!!!).  Football is unique in how important each game is to a team's overall record.  Two games is one-eighth of a team's season, and if you go win-less those first two games, you have some catching up to do.

So, slightly different format this week.  I'll start by ranking the 2-0 teams.

1. New England - Obviously, the both of the Patriots wins have been impressive.  Moss looks like the player everybody said he could no longer be.  Their offensive line doesn't get beat.  Brady has all of the weapons he could ever need.  Only injuries are going to bring this team down.

Still, part of me has to believe that the Patriots aren't as good as they've shown so far.  If they are, then I, as well as fans of every other team, have to give up my dreams of my team winning the Super Bowl, because there's no way any team beats the Patriots when they play like that.  The second reason is that both of these games have been 'chip on their shoulder games', where they've been playing with a little extra emotion, especially the San Diego game.  Can they get up for 16 + 3 games like that?  I'll wait and see.

2. Indianapolis - Honestly, I don't know how any reasonable person can watch Brady and Manning side-by-side and not come away thinking Manning isn't the better quarterback.  Manning is more accurate by an order of magnitude than Brady or any other quarterback in the NFL right now.  That's not saying Brady isn't accurate.  That's saying Manning is insanely accurate.  And don't tell me that Brady has more championships.  Does Manning win at least two, if not all three if he's playing in place of Brady?  Yes.

3. Pittsburgh - I still say Pittsburgh hasn't played a good team, but even so, in two games the Steelers have outscored their opponents 60-10.  Really good teams beat up on bad teams.  I've heard national media types make comments like "Ben Roethlisberger is now becoming a good passing quarterback." Um, has everybody forgot how much the Steelers favored the pass during their Super Bowl run?  Toss out 2006.  Roethlisberger is poised for a big year.

4. Green Bay - Is Green Bay for real?  I guess I've become so used to the Packers being bad that I have a hard time believing they could actually be good.  I also thought their rebuilding would take another year, but apparently the future is now.  I initially had the Packers swapped with the Cowboys, but I had to move them up given how much better they played against the Giants.  The only worrisome part of the Packers is that they haven't shown much of a running game.  83 rushing yards on 29 attempts (2.9 yards/carry) will get you through the first four games, but after teams get game film and cheat towards stopping the pass the Packers are going to have to adjust.

5. Dallas - Much like the Steelers, the Cowboys have beaten up on two poor teams.  I've been incredibly unimpressed with their defense (partially due to a number of key injuries), but they seem to have an offense that can deal with that.  Next week, their crummy defense will go up against the Bears' crummy offense.  One of those two will be exposed.

6. Houston - It makes me happy to see Houston finally winning some games.  This most recent win against the Panthers was especially impressive - 31 straight points to counter falling behind 14-0, and on the road no less.  This team looks balanced - offense/defense, pass/run - and Matt Schaub is stepping up.

7. Denver - I'm not even sure if Denver should be allowed to be in this list.  They have barely won both of their games and could just as easily be 0-2 as 2-0.  Furthermore, those two games were at Buffalo and at home against Oakland.  Overachieving team, or team learning how to win?  I don't know, but I'm not particularly high on the Broncos right now.

8. San Francisco - The 49ers were three yards away from losing in week two.  Literally.  The Rams' potential game-winning field goal dropped three yards short.  I didn't see how well they played, but they barely beat an Orlando Pace-less Rams.  They didn't look good against the Cardinals in their opener, though the Cardinals didn't look too good either and they played just fine against the Seahawks.  Other than Frank Gore, the 49ers still have plenty to prove.

9. Detroit - Wins over the Vikings and the Raiders aren't going to get you much in the way of respect points, but that doesn't take away the fact that the Lions are 2-0 for the first time in quite a while.  The Lions got a massive gift from the NFL's schedule makers with their first two opponents.  Surprisingly, Kitna looks like the leader that team needs.  I'm looking forward to their games against the Bears and the Packers.

10. Washington - Last night's win was a great win.  That aside, their defense gave up a ton of yards and produced no turnovers.  Jason Campbell played like a quarterback still learning the game - some bright spots, some low spots.  Washington could be a team that gets a fourth-place schedule bounce.

Now, on to the fun part - ranking the 0-2 teams.

9. Philadelphia - I said exactly the same thing last week - how do the Eagles always find a way to lose games like these?  The Redskins shouldn't have even been in the game, let alone leading.  The Eagles were supposed to win both of these games.  Now they'll have to fight just to make the playoffs.

8. New Orleans - The Saints got blown out again.  Their secondary is horrible.  They need to get that problem fixed fast, except that that's a problem you fix in the offseason, not mid-season.  Sounds like their offensive line is having big problems as well (which would explain their ineptitude on offense).  The Saints have expectations to live up to - is the pressure weighing them down?  No, it looks like they're just coming back to Earth.

7. NY Jets - The Jets are another team that is coming back to Earth.  It certainly doesn't help that Thomas Jones isn't completely healthy, but the Jets didn't have Jones last year and they still won 10 games.  Clemens is not the savior.

6. St. Louis - What makes the Rams' start especially hard to swallow is that their two losses were both at home, both against division opponents.  I can only mention Orlando Pace so many times, but his loss absolutely kills them.

5. NY Giants - Is Coughlin really about to get fired?  Maybe media types are projected four or five straight losses, which could definitely get Coughlin canned.  Still, the Giants played well against Dallas and lost to a surprisingly good Green Bay team with a less-than-100% Eli Manning (nevermind a bunch of other injuries).

4. Oakland - Want a great example of how small of a margin of error you have in the NFL?  If Mike Shanahan had waited one second longer to call a timeout, the Raiders would have beat the Broncos.  Instead, Janikowski hit the upright in his second attempt and the Broncos marched down the field and scored.  Oakland looked much better in their second game, but an 0-2 start for a team accustomed to losing is enough to get the snowball rolling.

3. Miami - Here's the story of Miami's last game:  Trent Green threw four interceptions, and Ronnie Brown led the team in rushing with a whopping 33 yards.

2. Kansas City - The Chiefs can't do anything on offense, and it all starts with their offensive line.  Larry Johnson doesn't yet have 100 yards rushing in two games combined.

1. Atlanta - The Joey Harrington experiment may be over after just two games.  Rumors are that Byron Leftwich may be signing with the Falcons this week.  Maybe Vick was valuable after all.

AFC Divisional frontrunners

East - Patriots.  Duh

North - Steelers.  Only team in the division to have two really good games.

South - Colts.  Same-old same-old.

West - Chargers.  I can't give it to the Broncos when I think they should be 0-2.  Not that the Chargers have looked that much better...

AFC Wildcard race

1. Broncos

2. Texans

3. Ravens

4. Bengals

5. Titans

6. Jaguars

NFC Divisional frontrunners

East - Cowboys.  With the Eagles starting 0-2, this division is theirs for the taking.

North - Packers.  I'll take any opportunity not to pick the Bears.  Did you see that  Grossman had another two picks on Sunday?

South - Panthers.  This may be the weakest division in football.

West - 49ers.  God damn Seahawks were one stupid fumble away from being here.  You have to reward performance though.

NFC Wildcard race

1. Seahawks

2. Bears

3. Cardinals

4. Eagles

5. Lions

6. Redskins

7. Buccaneers

Seahawks lose

This is a tough loss to swallow. There are some positives to take from the game, but I'll get to those later. Let's talk about the bad parts.

First and foremost, this game should have been won. The Seahawks had a beautiful comeback, and then blew it in a Cardinal-like fashion. The official word on what happened is that Alexander thought Hasselbeck audibled to a run, but Hasselbeck hadn't, thus they ran into each other. Where does the blame go? Both Hasselbeck and Alexander share blame for not getting their signals straight. Hasselbeck gets extra blame for not recognizing the play was broken and just standing there while the pass rush came at him. That single play quite literally blew the game. This game was following the standard script of driving to the opponent's 30 yard line and Josh Brown hitting a game-winning field goal with no time left.

So, instead of being 2-0 and on top of the NFC West, the Seahawks are 0-1 in division and are going to have to play a little harder. Losses like this are what prevent teams from having 'special' seasons. Good teams will get maybe four or five games like this each year. The great teams win all of them and get 12 or 13 wins. Average teams win one and don't make the playoffs.

What really bothers me is that this kind of late-game execution problem has happened before - the Chicago game had a botched QB-Center exchange that killed a drive. Once a year is understandable, though this is twice in three games. It had better not become a repeat occurrence.

I'll finish up with the negatives. The pass rush was horrible - no sacks and few disruptions. Leinart never felt pressure from the rush. I'm not sure if not having Leroy Hill affected that, but it was a poor showing regardless. Too many big plays were given up early. That's how the Seahawks got down 17-0 and had to spend all of their energy getting back in the game, rather than building a lead. Shaun Alexander had another poor first half, as did the Seahawks offense. When the Seahawks play better teams, especially on the road like today, they won't be able to come back. In a sense, the difference between this week and last week was that the Seahawks got down too much this week.

Now for some positives. Deion Branch had a monster game. All of the receivers got involved, even Courtney Taylor caught a pass. The bright side of the slow start was that once the offense picked up, only a botched hand-off/miscommunication could stop them. Lofa Tatupu had another big play. His interception was what really turned the momentum of the game. The offense did will in short yardage situations, which they've had problems with since Hutchinson left.

Overall, it hurts that the game was lost. However, I've come away from it with a better feeling than if they had played poorly and somehow won. The Seahawks showed they can be inconsistently good. To be a Super Bowl contender, they need to be consistently good.

Halftime video highlights

To hell with the games. What's up with the Steelers' throwback uniforms? Horrible. Those are maybe the ugliest uniforms I have ever seen in my life.

The Bucs are continuing their domination of the Saints. 21-0 at half. Let's see if Brees can bring them back.

Plaxico Burress has got to be 6'10". All Eli Manning has to do is toss him jump balls - he'll never lose.

Texans responded with 17 points after going down 14-0. I still can't believe they were seven-point underdogs.

The difference between the Colts and the Titans

Or maybe the difference between their quarterbacks. Vince Young gets a nice run to give his team a third-and-three in their last drive before half, then throws the ball at his tackler and gets a 15 yards penalty. The Titans punt.

The Colts take over with maybe a minute left, and Peyton Manning throws a couple of beautiful passes to give the Colts a chance at a touchdown. Unfortunately for them they run out of time and have to settle for a field goal.

The Titans had a chance to get some points before half, maybe even tie it up. Instead they give up points. Good teams get points in the last two minutes of halves.

Week 2, one hour in

Not much had happened the last time I refreshed my nfl.com scores page. But all of that has since changed.

What the hell?

The Bucs are currently up on the Saints 14-0 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. I'll wait and see how this one plays out, but this is 5.5 bad quarters for the Saints. And, if the Bucs look good this week, the Seahawks' win last week will look even better.

The Browns are up 13-7 on the Bengals with 9 minutes left in the half. The Browns scored 13 points? In the first half? Maybe Charlie Frye wasn't such a good pickup for the Seahawks.
Update: In the past five minutes, the Bengals tacked on another touchdown, and the Browns responded with a touchdown of their own. What is going on here?

The game I'm watching:

Tennessee is hanging in with Indianapolis. The Colts offense looks plenty efficient, but their defense doesn't look as fast as it did in week one. It's worth mentioning the Colts are missing two starters on defense. If Tennessee wants to have a chance of winning this game, they're going to have to get into the endzone. 13-6 Colts, 4 minutes left in the half.

The rest of the games:

The Steelers keep kicking field goals. That doesn't seem to be a problem, as the Bills haven't done anything on offense. 9-0 Steelers, 2 minute warning.

Jaguars haven't put up much for points but they have put up some yardage. Hopefully that translates into points in the second half. 3-0 Jags, 2 minute warning.

Giants and Packers are even at 7 with 4 minutes left in the half. Manning is playing and is 8-12 for 118 yards.

The Texans just tied up their game with the Panthers at 14 with 8 minutes left in the half. Looks like we've got a shootout here.

Apparently, the Rams don't need Orlando Pace to put up points... at least, not against the 49ers they don't. Rams up 13-7, under two minutes in the half. Where's that 'niners defense?

Week 2 Picks

Officially for the season I am 0-1 with my picks (I picked the Thursday-night opening game). Unofficially, I also went 6-9 on the rest of the games, but I picked those on Friday and meant to review them before posting them. I never reviewed my picks, and thus I never posted them. And that's probably for the best, because I didn't do too well. Week 1 is also a poor week to pick, because so little is actually known about each team. Anyway, I'll put myself at 0-1 for the season, and do my picks while sipping some wine and watching USC-Nebraska.

(Lines taken from newbodog.com at 9pm PST. Yeah, that means the USC-Nebraska game is Tivo-ed).

STEELERS -10 (over Bills)
The Steelers won big in week 1. Now they get their home opener and their crowd is going to be crazy. The Bills will have to punch Pittsburgh in the mouth immediately to quiet the crowd and keep the game close. I expect the Bills to be low on emotion after a tough week of dealing with the Everett injury. Look for the Steelers to win big again and jump to fifth on everyone's power rankings.

Bengals -7.5 (over BROWNS)
Any chance the Browns play well? No, not yet. Best reason to watch this game - Chad Johnson touchdown celebration #2. I was disappointed with the jacket from week 1. It wasn't bad, just not what it was built up to be. Second best reason to watch this game - Cleveland crowd calling for Brady Quinn in the first quarter.

Colts -7.5 (over TITANS)
This is the AM game I'm watching tomorrow. Admittedly it's the only game available in the AM in the Los Angeles market (still pissed I couldn't get Directv HD), and I wasn't excited when I first saw it on the schedule, but I've since warmed up to it. Most of all, I want a second look at the Colts defense. Was it really as fast as I saw in that first game? Let's see them chase Vince Young around for four quarters. If they can chase him down, then maybe they are that fast. For now, you can't pick against the Colts with a team that was a little too surprisingly good in week 1. That and the Titans don't have their best corner (the infamous Pacman Jones). Instead they have Nick Harper. That's an odd parallel with week 1.

Texans +7 (over PANTHERS)
The Texans look like a team that could put up a bunch of points this year. Carolina could be a good team, but they'll need a few more games to convince me they're back. The Texans will at least keep it close

49ers +3 (over RAMS)
As much as I ripped on the 49ers for their week one performance, their secondary did a great job of shutting down Boldin and Fitzgerald. They have two great corners and at least one good safety. Drew Bennett is still hurt (actually probable, so he may play), which gives Bulger just two dangerous receivers. The more important injury is the one that put Orlando Pace on IR after week 1. As I said before, Pace went down last year and the Rams tanked. Gotta believe the niners will win this one outright (though if their defense isn't as good as everyone thinks, this will be the week it gets exposed).

GIANTS -2.5 (over Packers)
Will Manning play? That's the big question, because if that stocky lefty plays, the line probably shifts by about 10 points. Brandon Jacobs is out for the Giants, but I was impressed with Ward showed in relief (and sure enough, he's getting the start). My first instinct was to go with Packers and the points, but then I figured the Giants won't muff two punts and give the Packers 10 points. The line is close enough that the Giants can cover with a field goal, so I'll go with them.

JAGUARS -10.5 (over Falcons)
The Falcons looked bad last week. Any chance they've fixed it in a week? Naw. The Jaguars got embarrassed last week. They'll come out firing this week.

Saints -4.5 (over BUCCANEERS)
This game has special interest to me, as the Seahawks played the bucs last week and it will provide a bit of comparison between the Seahawks and the Saints. The Saints were horrible in week 1, and a voice in the back of my head is telling me that wasn't completely an aberration. That secondary is still bad, and the linebackers look suspect. The Saints had a special year last year. Their seventh-round pick, Colston, had a great year. Their week three Monday night game against the Falcons started their emotional momentum snowballing and they never looked back. So, was 2006 a typical year for the talent New Orleans has, or was it an everybody-has-a-career-year year? If the Saints don't whop the Cowboys late in the season in primetime are they thought of as highly? And after saying all of that, I'm still picking the Saints to cover on the road.

LIONS -3.5 (over Vikings)
The Vikings got two touchdowns on interceptions (off Joey Harrington, no less), and got their third when Adrian Peterson took a short pass 60 yards for a score. The final score looked impressive, but don't believe the hype. The Lions, on the other hand, put up a ton of points on the road. Antoine Winfield can pick one receiver to cover. That leaves two more for the rest of the defense. The Lions are going to put up a bunch of points and I don't see the Vikings matching them.

DOLPHINS +4 (over Cowboys)
This may seem like an odd pick, but consider the following: The Cowboys are missing two key defenders (Ellis and Newman (I know he's only questionable, but even if he plays he can't be close to 100% effective)) and one of their two important receivers (Glenn). So, the Cowboys will have to rely on their running game against a Dolphins defense with three big stars in their front seven. The Cowboys secondary looks susceptible to big pass plays. Look for a close, low scoring game. I don't expect the Dolphins to win, but they're a home 'dog being given more than a field goal. At least, that's the logic.

Seahawks -3 (over CARDINALS)
I don't think my Seahawks should ever be taken seriously. While I understand they're going to lose some games this year, I'll probably pick them to win outright, if not cover, every week. With that said, Arizona is coming off a short week after looking horrible on Monday night. Shaun Alexander always has big games and Seattle looks ready to explode. Go Hawks!

Jets +10 (over RAVENS)
This is way too many points to give the Jets, even if they're on the road. The Jets aren't as bad as they looked against the Patriots, and the Ravens definitely do not deserve to be given 10 points against anybody but the absolute worst. The Ravens don't have the kind of offense that can put up points fast so I have to believe the Jets will keep it close.

Raiders +10 (over BRONCOS)
How good are the Broncos? As of yet, not good enough to blow a team out. For this game I'm counting on the 36 points given up by the Raiders last week as a fluke/bad week. The Raiders defense should be good, and their offense (which I think should be starting Culpepper) can keep it within 10.

BEARS -13 (over Chiefs)
This game scares me some, because I really don't know how good, or bad, the Bears' offense is. All it takes is for Grossman to hit Berrian on a couple deep routes and the Bears can pile up some points. Chicago's defense looked great last week, especially against the run, which is basically all the Chiefs have. The Chiefs could easily get shut out. So the question then becomes can the Bears get two touchdowns? Yeah, I think so.

Chargers +4 (over PATRIOTS)
I'm definitely watching this game. These two teams are pretty even - San Diego with a slightly better defense, New England with a slightly better offense. I have a gut feeling Maroney is going to get stuffed a bunch and Tomlinson will break out. Moss is going to be doubled, and San Diego at least has the corners to run with him. The Patriots could well win, but not by much.

EAGLES -7 (over Redskins)
I don't have much to say about this game other than home teams play well on Monday night. The Eagles had a bunch of mistakes last week (the returner that muffed the punt return at the end of the game got cut), and I expect those to be fixed this week. Unless Portis and Betts run all over the Eagles' defense, Philadelphia should win by a sizable margin.

Last note: USC looks good. East coasters, midwesterners, and southerners need to stop dogging USC. They beat every major conference team they play, and often times win big. They could well equal the 50 they put up on Arkansas last year. Currently it's 42-10 with 5 minutes left in the third quarter. Yeah, SC is good.

Week 1

So, it turns out I actually have a reader - my bro Kip.  I was seriously considering letting this flounder for a couple of weeks, but hey, you can't leave the readers disappointed.  So, a couple days late, here's a roundup of NFL week 1.

Gotta start with the Seahawks game.

Seahawks 20, Buccaneers 6.

Unfortunately I didn't get a chance to watch this one.  I don't think I've seen a Seahawks opening game since I moved away from Seattle.  Still, I've probably spent as much time reading about this game after-the-fact as I would have from just watching it.  The Seahawks didn't do much, though they've never been a quick-starter under Holmgren.  It's certainly a better performance than last year's opener in Detroit.  Hasselbeck had a quietly-consistent game, Alexander got 100 yards, and the defense was gangbusters.  The only injury was the high ankle sprain to DJ Hackett, which is a tough loss, but the Seahawks have plenty of depth at wide receiver, and I'm excited to see what Ben Obomanu can do.  One last observation:  The Seahawks played average at best, yet I haven't heard anybody say, "the true test of a good team is being able to win even when they don't play well."  Right.  Yet I heard that all the time about San Francisco the next day.  Here's the difference between those teams:  Seattle is established, San Francisco wants to be.

Seahawks stock: Even.  They didn't do anything to put themselves in the league's top 5 or below the league's top 10.

The scariest part for the Bucs is that Cadillac Williams and Jeff Garcia got knocked out of the game.  Not that I expected Williams to actually make it through the year without getting injured, but I at least expected him to make a couple games.  Galloway seems to have aged well.  If they win anything this year, it will be on the back of their defense.

Buccaneers stock: Even.  The Bucs lost on the road to the Seahawks.  Big surprise.

Now, the Seahawks opponents in the NFC West.

49ers 20, Cardinals 17.

This was such an ugly game.  Yeah, I actually watched the entire thing, and the only thing that kept me watching was the comfort in knowing every mistake made further locked up the NFC West for the Seahawks in my mind. Mike times 3 talked about the game being more about good defenses than bad offenses.  Naw.  The only offensive player that looked talented in the slightest was Frank Gore.  Alex Smith couldn't do anything until that last drive, and if he plays like that against the Seahawks he won't have a chance at a last drive.  The Cardinals o-line still needs work.  The Niners receivers are crap. (did you see Darryl Jackson let the touchdown pass go right through his arms?  Yeah, that's Darryl).  I don't fear either of these teams, for the moment at least.  Both are young and could get better as the year goes on.  Luckily we get the Cardinals next week.

49ers stock: Falling.  There's a reason they're called 'Sleepers' - they haven't proven anything yet, and they still haven't.

Cardinals stock: Falling, though just slightly.  I thought the Cardinals might experience a bounce just from changing coaches.  Guess they still have a ways to go.

Panthers 27, Rams 13.

The biggest story from this game, other than the Rams getting beat down at home, is that they lost Orlando Pace for the year (placed on IR today).  The Rams were an upstart team last year, then they lost Orlando Pace (and lost to the Seahawks), and proceeded to tank.  The Rams don't have a viable backup, and now Bulger's blindside is going to be at risk all year.  So why did the Rams get beat so badly?  Because their defense is horrible.  Blah blah blah Adam Carriker blah blah blah.  This team can't cover receivers, can't stop the run, and is just plain bad.  I didn't buy the Rams at the start of the preseason, but then everybody talked about how their defense would be fine, so I bought in.  I'm back to selling.

I'm not sure what I think about the Panthers.  I thought they'd be decent this year (around 8-9 wins), largely because it would be tough to have as many injuries this year.  Steve Smith dominated, but it was the Rams.

Rams stock: falling.  You can't win shootouts when your offense doesn't score.

Panthers stock: holding.  With as bad as the Saints looked, the Panthers could possibly challenge for the division title.  I've got to see more though.

NFC games.

Green Bay 16, Philadelphia 13.

How does Phili always lose games like this?  Giants in week 2 last year.  I think it was Tampa that beat them with a 60 (or so) yard field goal last year as well.  Phili can't lose games like this if they're going to challenge for the NFC title.  Granted, it was essentially two plays that cost Phili this game, but they still only scored 13 points.  They have to do more now that their offense is getting old.

If I were a Packers fan, I don't think I'd be too excited this week.  I'd feel lucky we stole a game, optimistic about our young defense, and incredibly worried about our offense.  Green Bay has no running game, and they'd better find a second receiver after Donald Driver.

Eagles stock: Falling.  You have to win these games to be (NFC) elite.

Packers stock: Holding.  Just like I thought - good defense, bad offense.

Vikings 24, Falcons 3.

This score shocked me, but maybe it shouldn't have.  It's going to be a long year for the Falcons.  The Vikings were my pick for worst team in the league, and they beat the Falcons by three touchdowns.  Adrian Peterson looks incredible.  I'm sure Vikings fans are happy Chester Taylor got hurt.  I was a Peterson denier all through his college days, but this guy is the real deal.  The Falcons?  I really want to see Joey Harrington do well, I really do.  But he got all of the #1 reps in the preseason and still threw no touchdowns and two picks against the Vikings.  Not promising.

Vikings stock: Rising.  No team with Adrian Peterson can be the worst in the league, not even one led by Tavaris Jackson.

Falcons stock: Falling.  Currently #2 in the chase for the first pick of the 2008 draft.

Redskins 16, Dolphins 13.

To mediocre teams go to overtime and the home teams wins by 3.  That's the story of this game.  Neither team is making the playoffs this year.  Clinton Portis' game was the one bright spot for the Redskins.  Why are people going crazy over Antoine Randel El's 'amazing' game?  54 of his yards came on a luck hail mary at the end of the game which, by the way, meant nothing because he didn't get into the endzone.  Ronnie Brown continued sucking.  How was he taken 2nd overall?  Trent Green actually had a decent game by the numbers, but I have no idea how he actually played.

Redskins stock: Falling, slightly.  I thought this team might make it out of the NFC East basement.  This win wasn't impressive.

Dolphins stock: Holding.  Didn't expect much, didn't see much.

Lions 36, Raiders 21.

What happened to the vaunted Raiders defense?  The Lions laid 36 big ones on them.  So what does that mean?  Do the Lions have a great offense?  I was getting highlights of this game while watching a real game (Chargers-Bears) and it looked sloppy.  Kitna threw for three touchdowns, but also had two picks.  That's about par for the course.  McCown had a respectable game, other than the two interceptions and three fumbles (luckily none of them lost).

Lions stock: Holding.  36 points on anybody is a big deal.  Let's see how they do against the Packers and the Bears - two defenses that performed well this weekend.

Raiders stock: Holding.  McCown did better than expected.  Did they have 21 points in any game last year?  At least they can put up a fight.

Chargers 14, Bears 3.

Now here's a real game.  Except that it was almost as tough to watch as a preseason game.  Both offenses were completely inept, and the Chargers ultimately pulled away on a trick play (though the Tomlinson-throws-a-touchdown-play really shouldn't be considered a trick anymore, because everybody has seen it, yet it still works every time, especially against an overzealous-against-the-run Bears defense).  Unlike the 49ers-Cardinals game, this actually was a game with two very good defenses.  The Bears completely shut down Tomlinson, and apparently Rivers can only throw to Antonio Gates.  The 2007 Chargers are going to be this year's 2006 Patriots - winning despite their receivers.  Rivers looked frustrated all day.  Sophomore slump?  This game didn't do much to boost my confidence that Rivers can win a game when Tomlinson is off.

Of course, any game where the Bears tank offensively is a fun game to watch.  The Bears three-headed monster of Grossman, Benson, and the other Adrian Peterson all fumbled.  80 yards rushing, 122 yards receiving, and one interception for sexy Rexy.  And their new offensive weapon Devin Hester?  No touches.  The Bears won a ton of games last year on special teams and turnover differential.  Hester did nothing (definite sophomore slump here, because nobody will actually kick to him).  The Bears were negative in turnover differential, and Mike Brown, their safety who had an interception and a recovered fumble, is out for the year.  So is their NT Dvoracek.  The Bears are hurting.

Chargers stock: Falling, slightly.  Before this game, they were in the class of the Colts and Patriots.  Now they're just a little behind.

Bears stock: Holding: I'd put them as falling, except their offense and defense played pretty much as I expected.  Maybe falling in upcoming weeks if those defensive injuries are impactful.

Cowboys 45, Giants 35.

I watched this game as well - it was all hype.  Both of these teams have horrible defenses.  Romo looks like a poor man's Grossman, except that he has two once-great receivers and a good tight end.  Marion Barber is a hell of a running back, yet Julius Jones always gets more carries.  The Cowboys offense looks to be pretty good, but their defense is going to hold them back.  Plaxico Burress absolutely torched their secondary.  Granted they didn't have Newman, but there's hardly solace in knowing he's going to have to come back from Plantar Faciitus.  Oh, and that great addition in Ken Hamlin?  Same-old same-old - talking crap and getting burned deep.  Yeah, we miss him.

I have a little more sympathy for the Giants, who have just been wrecked with injuries.  Losing Brandon Jacobs is tough, but that Ward kid looks promising.  Manning needs to throw to the other Steve Smith more.  That guy is money.

Cowboys stock: Falling.  No way do they compete for the NFC East title with that defense.  I think they lost at least one key guy on defense for the year.

Giants stock: Holding.  Good enough to not get a high draft pick.

Finally, the AFC games.

Broncos 15, Buffalo 14

This game came in second to the real story of this game - Everett's neck injury, which initially looked bleak, but not looks hopeful.  Best wishes to Everett and his family, and a speedy recovery.

The game itself was an absolute heartbreaker for Buffalo.  Denver is a good opponent, and Buffalo had an incredible chance to pull off the upset (I'm assuming they were a home 'dog), and it got snatched away at (literally) the last second.  As inconceivable as it may seem now, this could be the game that keeps Buffalo from even competing for a wildcard spot.  I think Buffalo has enough talent to be a fringe contender, but they were going to need some luck to get into the playoffs.  Besides the obvious loss in the standings, the Bills have also lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Broncos, whom they will be competing with for a wildcard spot.  On top of that, the Bills are a young team and a loss like this could zap their spirit for a game or two, making their next two games extra dangerous.  The Bills will have to do all they can to bounce back next week or their season could be over before it starts.

I'd unload on Denver after a poorly played game like this except that they did exactly the same thing last year in an opening loss to the Rams.  The Broncos missed the playoffs by a game last year.  This year they won this game.  At the very least, this is a sign of progress.  Jay Cutler threw the ball well, Travis Henry had a monster Broncos debug, as did Javon Walker.  I didn't see this game, and now that I'm looking Denver's stats of 304 yards passing, 171 yards rushing, and only one offensive turnover, how on earth did they only score 15 points?  Elam missed two kicks.  Whatever, no worries their.  Elam probably won't miss more than, say, four kicks for the rest of the year, plus he showed he was money under pressure when the game was on the line.

Broncos stock: Rising, slightly.  The Broncos pulled out a tough win on the road when their kicker cost them six points.  Their defense showed up strong.  They look to be a strong tier 2 AFC team.

Bills stock: Holding.  What's up with Lee Evans getting 5 yards receiving?  The Bills showed they aren't quite good enough to beat AFC playoff teams.

Steelers 34, Cleveland 7

The media is going bonkers over the Steelers after this win.  Not me.  Why?  Because they played the Browns, the team that benched their starting quarterback partway through the game, then traded him during the following week.  The Browns have a bit of talent, but overall that team is horrible.  Credit to the Steelers for executing - lesser teams might do just enough to win - but still, it's the Browns.  I don't buy Willie Parker as an every-down back.  I'll wait to see how the Steelers do against the Bengals and the Ravens (are they playing the Bengals this week?).

The Browns.... just give Brady Quinn the damn ball.  He seems like the kind of player that can learn while getting hit repeatedly (i.e. not Tim Couch).  Take your lumps, get another high draft pick, and try for 6 wins in 2008.

Steelers stock: Holding.  Thumping the Browns proves nothing.

Browns stock:  Falling.  Currently my worst team in the NFL.  Silver lining - they can't do any worse than 'holding' next week.

Patriots 38, Jets 14

Now here's a game that makes me glad I waited to write this, because now I can talk about the Patriots video taping the Jets sidelines.  Here's my take on this:  I've heard that every single team in the NFL is trying to gain competitive advantages in every way possible, even if it means bending/breaking the rules.  So, are the Patriots the only team doing this?  No.  Is this the only way the Patriots are 'cheating'? Probably not.  Did it help them beat the Jets?  Well, let's just say the video taping gained the Pats two extra touchdowns they wouldn't have otherwise got.  That still has them winning by 10 points, so I think it's fair to say the Patriots are better than the Jets.  However, the Patriots got caught after they (and every other NFL team) were explicitly warned not to do this.  Incidents like this harm the NFL as a whole - just look at the comments by the Eagles about how they're now questioning why the Patriots did so much better in the second half of Super Bowl XXXIX.  So commissioner Goddel has to come down hard, and he did, fining Bellichek $500k, fining the Patriots $250k, and taking away conditional draft picks (first round if they make the playoffs, second and third round if they don't).

Now, on to for the actual game.  The Patriots looked as good as we all thought there were.  Brady was able to stand in the pocket without fear of a Jets pass-rusher touching him.  Moss probably had his best game of the season, as teams will probably double him for the rest of the year.  Sammy Morris looks like a serviceable change-of-pace from Maroney (who didn't look that impressive).  The Patriots are good, end of story.  The Jets... I don't think this is their year.  They were a great story last year, so there's a bit of sentiment that makes me want to think they're going to get better.  Realistically, Pennington is not going to stay healthy, the offensive line is going to take time to gel, Thomas Jones won't be healthy for a couple of weeks, and the Jets are staring down 8-8 and no playoffs.  One thing that could change this: Kellen Clemens sparking the Jets offense.  I'll be paying attention to the game this week.

Patriots stock: Holding. It's tough to be any better than I thought the were going to be.  Let's see how they do against the Chargers this week.

Jets stock: Falling, slightly.  Like I said, sophomore slump.

Titans 13, Jaguars 10

What the hell happened to Jacksonville's defense?  Are the Jaguars not the most bipolar team in the NFL?  Never, ever, ever bet on, or against, this team.  This week they gave up 282 rushing yards, and only 22 of those came from Vince Young.  Huh?  Meanwhile they rushed for all of 72 yards.  Double Huh?  I didn't see the game, but from the stats, this doesn't look like a David Garrard problem.  This looks like a team problem.  Fixable?  Most likely.  Garrard's passes were spread around to a bunch of receivers, though none went to Reggie Williams or Matt Jones.  Maybe there's some promise there.  But this is a tough home loss to swallow.

The Titans, on the other hand, have got to be ecstatic.  Who is Chris Brown?  I read he was supposed to be the feature back a few years back but didn't step up enough to win the job, so Travis Henry was brought in.  Maybe now is his time.  LenDale White will tandem with Brown, and suddenly Travis Henry may not be missed.  Of course, the Titans can't rely on 282 rushing yards each week, so if they're going to do anything they'll have to do better than 78 passing yards.  Still, holding the Jaguars to 10 points is impressive, and that defense is only going to get better by bringing in Bryce Fisher from Seattle.

Titans stock: Rising.  I don't think they're good enough to be a playoff team, but they could definitely challenge.

Jaguars stock: Falling, slightly.  This was a disappointing performance, but it's just week 1, and they could respond.

Texans 20, Chiefs 3

Welcome to the school of hard knocks, Kansas City.  You have no offensive line, and you're in for a really long year.  Granted, LJ had only 10 carries, but that doesn't make up for the rest of your offense sucking.  Damon Huard has no receivers sans Tony Gonzalez.  Just image how much worse this game would have gone if Croyle had been quarterbacking.

The Titans look like a sleeper.  Matt Schaub looks good, Andre Johnson looks good, the running backs look sufficient.  Don't sleep on the Texans.

Texans stock: Rising.  Lots of potential here.

Chiefs stock: Falling.  Teams will look forward to playing Kansas City this year.

Bengals 27, Ravens 20

This game kind of reminded me of the last Super Bowl - poorly played, but in an exciting way.  The Bengals defense looks good enough to keep them in games, and their offense looks great enough to win games.  The Bengals season is all about two things: How will their offensive line hold up, and how good can their young defense be.  Both looked fine Monday night.

The Ravens, on the other hand, looked old.  This may be the year they go from 'veteran' to 'old'.  McNair had three lost fumbles and one interception.  Oh, and he got knocked out of the game and couldn't lead his team when it counted.  Nice job from their fearless leader.  The Ravens have a lot of questions that weren't answered.  How long will Jonathan Ogden be out?  The Ravens already have a new left guard.  If that offensive line can't hold up, the offense is going to crumble.  Last thought:  How good is Ed Reed, and how classy was his punt return touchdown 'celebration' of immediately circling the pilon and running back to the bench.  Granted, he had to get oxygen so that he could go back on defense, but still.  That guy is all business, all class.

Week one is a fun week, just because power rankings are the most volatile after this week than any other week of the season.  The big winners this week:  Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee, Pittsburgh.  The big losers this week: All of the NFC west except the Seahawks, Atlanta, Baltimore.  The race has started.  Let's see who jumped out to early leads.

AFC Division front runners:

East - Patriots.  Duh.

North - Bengals.  A win over Baltimore is more impressive than a win over Cleveland.

South - Colts. Duh.

West - Chargers.  Not overly impressive, but certainly better than Denver.

AFC Wilcard standings:

1. Steelers

2. Broncos

3. Ravens

4. Jets

5. Texans

6. Jaguars

7. Titans

NFC Division front runners:

East - Philadelphia.  By default.

North - Chicago.  Green Bay is close though.

South - Carolina.  Really not impressed by the Saints.

West - Seahawks.

NFC Wildcard standings

1. Packers

2. Cowboys

3. Saints

4. Giants

5. 49ers

6. Lions

See you tomorrow to pick the some winners.

Colts-Saints observations

Honestly, I thought the Saints were going to keep it close. Worst-case, the Colts would get up by double digits, but the Saints would rally late to prevent the Colts from covering. But, it wasn't even close.

I haven't posted 1-3 of the NFC (or any of the AFC, but that's another story), but when I do you'll see that I have New Orleans ranked at the top. Huh. I'm not going to change that now (because those are meant as preseason rankings), but that will definitely change when I next update them. The Saints defense, specifically the secondary, looked bad. Yeah, it was against the Colts, who can make anybody look bad, but that's not the kind of showing an NFC favorite puts up.

Here's how the night went: The Saints were keeping their safeties deep to guard against the deep threat. The Colts responded by running Joseph Addai, which the Saints couldn't stop, and as soon as the Saints started to cheat against the run, Manning burned them deep. End of story. The Saints had no answer for the Colts' attack.

Saints Specific: The obvious conclusion was that the Saints defense was bad. However, that was somewhat expected. That's not to say they don't have big problems to fix, but at least those problems were expected. What wasn't expected was how ineffective the offense was. What happened to the nearly-perfect Drew Brees from the preseason? Did Joe Horn elevate the Saints receiver corps so much that Colston and Henderson look average without him? Maybe it was just first game rust. Whatever the case, the Saints need to show up in week 2.

Colts Specific: Man, the Colts look good. Their defense was like a swarm of bees - every play ended with at least four blue jerseys assisting the tackle. I didn't see that from the Colts last year, even when their defense stepped up in the playoffs. I just took a quick look at the Colts roster. Only one player on defense is over 29, and the majority are in the 22-26 range. That's a young defense that is fast and that swarms. They looked soft on the Saints first drive (which resulted in a missed field goal), but after that they buckled down and didn't give up anything. Pair that defense with the Colts offense, which looked as good as always, and you have a superbowl contender.

Thursday night preview and pick

Getting pulled into a meeting this very second. Tonight's pick: Saints, plus the 6 1/2. (as of 4:30 pm pdt): http://www.newbodog.com/sports-betting/nfl-football.jsp

NFC Preview - Part 3

Wildcard Tier

9. New York Giants
I’m keeping the Giants low because of two reasons: (1) Tiki Barber is gone. (2) The players tire of Tom Coughlin every year, and I don’t see any reason why this year will be any different. Coughlin is an old-school coach who is incredibly tough on his players – probably the reason Michael Strahan held out for so long. Sure, Strahan wanted more money, but that was just to make the rigors of training camp worth his time. Keeping his normal salary while skipping Coughlin’s training camp is essentially a raise. Coughlin simply wears out his players, and that doesn’t work the highly paid, pampered athletes of today.
I like some of the talent, but I don’t like the attitudes. Shockey, Burress. I think team moral will improve with Tiki Barber gone. Production will slip, but moral will improve. I don’t know why he didn’t catch more heat for speaking out in the press last year. Never mind that he may have been correct in his statements – he wasn’t particularly stately with his decisions to speak out. With Barber gone, Eli Manning will have to step up, both as a player and as a leader, in order for this team to succeed. I see this as a learning year for Manning, with 2008 as his potential breakout season.
One last thing about the Giants playoff hopes. I know they’ve made the playoffs two consecutive years. They also got worked, at home, in 2005, and were gifted the sixth seed in 2006 because nobody else in the weak NFC could take it. The NFC’s 5th through 10th teams have all improved, and the Giants won’t be gifted anything this year.

8. San Francisco
The 49ers have been one of my favorite teams to follow this off-season, just because they’ve become media darlings that are supposed to knock off my Seahawks. Not yet. The niners are definitely moving in the right direction, but they’re not there yet. Alex Smith is on his way, but he still doesn’t have any receivers. Don’t give me Ashley Lelie or Darryl Jackson. Lelie is on his third team for a reason – he’s not worth keeping. Darryl Jackson doesn’t practice. He had some great years in Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck that resulted from a special chemistry built over years. In the same way that Hasselbeck didn’t immediately have that chemistry with Deion Branch, Smith won’t have the chemistry with Jackson (at least not this year). Frank Gore is a stud – so long as he stays healthy. The guy blew out both knees in college. This year he’s starting the season with a broken hand. Some guys just get dinged up. The defense sounds like it’s on its way. I will say this about the Nate Clements signing – why does everybody consider this a good value signing. Yeah, it’s great to have a shutdown corner, but how bad is the cap hit going to hurt them down the road? They must have 20 million or so against this year’s cap (they had the most space of any team), otherwise they’re going to be hamstrung by Clements cap number in future years.

7. Carolina Panthers
Similar to the Seahawks, the Panthers were hit with the injury bug last year. A quick comment on the coverage of injuries in the NFL: NFL coverage seems to echo the machismo that exists among the players and coaches, that injuries are not an excuse for not performing. Now, if you’re a coach, or a player captain, that mindset makes sense – you have to find a way to win, regardless of the circumstances. However, if you’re simply covering the NFL, injuries are a perfectly good reason for not performing. Did the Seahawks talent take a step back last year? No, their MVP running back and pro bowl quarter back all missed significant time, the offensive line started nine different combinations, Marcus Tubbs (the one big DT among Seattle’s undersized defensive line) played five games. When Seattle played in the playoffs, three of their four top CBs were injured and couldn’t play. When you have to sign a mortgage broker to play corner against the Bears in the divisional round of the playoffs, you have a reason for underperforming. The Panthers injuries were a little more under-the-radar. Everybody saw Steve Smith battle through injuries, but others were similarly important, like MLB Dan Morgan. The Panthers are sure to bounce back just by the law of averages keeping them healthier.
What will keep the Panthers down this year is Jake Delhomme. He regressed immensely last year, so much so that there’s chatter David Carr, the once-sacrificial lamb of the Houston Texans, will take his job during the season. If Delhomme can regain his form, the Panthers have a good chance at a wildcard spot. That’s a big if though.

Division Title Tier

Now we move onto teams that will be competing to win their division. Let’s get to it.

6. St. Louis
The big talk around Rams camp is Adam Carriker, the college defensive end getting moved to nose tackle for the Rams 3-4 scheme. I’m not sure how St. Louis scouts looked at a college, 4-3 end and saw an NFL nose tackle, but apparently it’s working out just fine. If the Rams can stop the run, the rest of the defense will fall into place, and then the offense can concentrate on outscoring opponents. St. Louis is loaded with talent on offense. The front office smartly got Marc Bulger’s contract done so that it won’t be a distraction. Steven Jackson could have the best fantasy year of any running back, including Tomlinson. The only concern on offense is age. Isaac Bruce was old last year. Torry Holt has passed 30 and is starting the year with a knee that isn’t completely recovered. Orlando Pace is coming back from an injury. Even Marc Bulger missed games last year. Steven Jackson is the only young star, and he plays the most bruising position of all (though, in his case, he’s giving more bruises than receiving). St. Louis is explosive. They’ll go as far as their defense takes them.

5. Dallas Cowboys
I keep flipping between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Ultimately I’m putting the Cowboys lower because they have more questions about their team. How will Wade Phillips, and the new coaching staff on the whole, affect the team? Has the league figured out Tony Romo (like they did at the end of last season) or will Romo figure out the league? Will their aging, star receivers continue to be productive (and will Terrell Owens hold onto the ball this year)? Will the secondary give up big plays like 2006? (note to optimistic Cowboy fan: Ken Hamlin was one of the reasons the Seahawks gave up so many big plays). Lots of questions here. The Cowboys could be good enough to make a Super Bowl run, or they could fall apart and miss the playoffs entirely. I’m putting them right in the middle.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were probably in the Playoff Bye tier... then Jeremiah Trotter was released. That chink in the armor started chatter about the Eagles defense getting old, and led to Donovan McNabb popping off again, as he (and his mom) has been apt to do in the time since Jeff Garcia took over after his last injury. The Eagles have talent, and are getting back two huge players in McNabb and Jevon Kearse. The Eagles, though, are old, and are due to drop off eventually. I’ve heard chatter that their locker room still suffers from the divide created by Terrell Owens two years ago. Donovan McNabb was chosen to lead the team past that, but he hasn’t finished either of the past two season. When healthy, the Eagles can play with anybody in the NFC. I don’t think they’ll stay healthy.

NFC Preview - Part 2

While it’s nice to get the bottom-of-the-barrel teams out of the way, the teams just above them aren’t much better. The playoff long shots are teams that I think have to have everything go right just to have a chance at a playoff spot. The wildcard teams won’t challenge in their division, but will reasonably have a shot at a wildcard berth.

Longshot Tier

12. Arizona
A week or two ago I got halfway through writing a post about how to bet to win money with the current Super Bowl odds. The post didn’t make it to completion because it morphed into a lesson on financial markets as seen through betting NFL teams, and that was just ridiculous. To summarize in a sentence, I basically ruled out all of the teams that I thought had no chance of winning the Super Bowl, then spread out my available money such that I would at least break even so long as any of those teams won. What’s relevant about that post was that every team I picked as a potential winner had at least 20-1 odds… except for the Cardinals, which were at 75-1 odds. Why was I willing to put money on the Cardinals? Well, the Cardinals seem to have a ton of talent that the previous coaching staff couldn’t properly harness. Their offensive line was especially atrocious. This year, the Cardinals have all new coaches, which gives them an x-factor for the year. Furthermore, the new head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, and assistant Russ Grimm were architects of the 2005 Steelers offensive line that led them to a Super Bowl victory. In my mind, there is a remote possibility that the Cardinals could explode.
However, in the end, this is still the Cardinals. I don’t expect Whisenhunt to have an effect like Mangini or Payton, at least not in 2007. Losing is a tough habit to break, especially when it’s ingrained in an organization like the Cardinals.

11. Green Bay
I’ve heard that Green Bay’s defense is supposed to be pretty good. If Green Bay is going to do anything this year, their defense is going to have to seriously limit points scored on it, because I don’t see Green Bay’s offense doing much at all. They have no running back, one established wide receiver (who will be starting the season hurt, albeit playing), and a quarterback with a “when the going gets tough, the tough throw interceptions” mentality. I know the Packers put up 48 against Seattle in the preseason, but any game where Aaron Rodgers goes 10/16 for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns is obviously a skewed data point. Green Bay will have to show me something for real before I can move them any higher.

10. Detroit
The funny thing is that I did an NFC North preview and tried to reason my way into picking Detroit over Chicago. So how have things changed? The injury to Tatum Bell hurt the Lions some. Three good-to-great wideouts won’t do you any good if you can’t run the ball. Mostly, though, it’s that I keep hearing bad things about Detroit’s defense. Like Green Bay, I’ll have to see some production before I move them higher.