NFC East Preview

I am somewhat at a loss with this division. No team is without flaws. No team looks outright horrible. NFL pundits seem to be anointing Philadelphia as one of the top teams in the league (8th, 8th, 8th), though now that I look at it Dallas isn't that far behind (9th in two of those). Here's my problem with Phily: Donovan McNabb is coming off major knee surgery. I know he's an amazing athlete, but so was Dante Culpepper. Oops. McNabb isn't exactly a spring chicken any more (turns 31 during the season), is coming off his third major surgery in five years, and will start the season barely nine months since his knee injury (typically six months to a year to rehab). Bringing him back early jeopardizes the season (and probably limits his abilities), and letting him rehab costs games early in the season. They've got a couple other major players coming back from various injuries (Javon Kearse, Brian Westbrook), but McNabb is what has me concerned. I have a feeling he isn't going to make it through the season (or at least won't be his typical self until maybe halfway through the season), and the Eagles won't have Jeff Garcia to bail them out this year (they have a bunch of #3 quarterbacks, but no #2s).

Dallas, on the other hand, intrigues me. I can see a (temporary, one-year) bounce that comes with replacing the dictatorial Bill Parcells with the (relatively) players-coach Wade Phillips. I don't see T.O. exploding. I think Romo will progress. I like their running backs. I'll have to wait and see how their safeties improve (I'm skeptical of the Hamlin signing, having seen him for a couple years in Seattle, but a new system may do him well), but their defense looks decent.

NY and Washington look like two teams passing each other while going in opposite directions. I don't see Manning responding well to the added pressure of not having Tiki Barber as a crutch, and that could kill the entire season. That whole team looks like a case of the inmates trying to run the asylum with Tom Coughlin as the ineffective warden. Washington has two nice running backs, plenty of other talent, and no Mark Brunell (or any of the other past stiffs that have quarterbacked the Redskins). Sounds like Jason Campell will work out to be a good quarterback, but this will be a learning year.

Last year's final standings:

NFC EAST	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
Philadelphia	10	6	0	.625	398	328	5-1	9-3
Dallas	9	7	0	.563	425	350	2-4	6-6
NY Giants	8	8	0	.500	355	362	4-2	7-5
Washington	5	11	0	.313	307	376	1-5	3-9

Thoughts on the standings

• I forgot that the NFC East had both NFC wildcards. That's not happening this year.
• The Giants have a much smaller point differential (-7) than the Eagles (+70) and the Cowboys (+75). And which of those teams lost a major offensive weapon this off season?
• Dallas went only 2-4 in the division, while Philadelphia went 5-1. I expect both of those records to normalize closer to .500

The NFC East gets the NFC North (weak division) and the AFC East (strong division) for its full division games, and placement games against the NFC West and South. Look for the teams that get Chicago and New England at home and you'll find a team with a distinct edge.

Philadelphia

• Philadelphia gets a first-place schedule, up from a fourth-place schedule from last year, giving them Seattle at home and New Orleans on the road.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit - probably the top two teams in that division - are both home games. Nice break.
• AFC East games - At New England and at NY Jets. Not so nice of a break.
• Their bye comes in Week 5. What a lousy time for a bye. Your players aren't beat-up enough yet to make use of the rest week, and you then have 12 straight weeks of football. Silver lining: The bye is sandwiched with the closest possible road games - NY Giants before and NY Jets afterwards. That should make the rest of the schedule much nicer.
• The Eagles could go into their bye 4-0: At Green Bay, Washington, Detroit, at NY Giants.
• Their remaining schedule is a nice balance of good/bad teams and home/away games. At Dallas, at New Orleans in weeks 15 and 16 will key games towards them earning a playoff spot.

Dallas

• Dallas plays a second-place schedule, same as last year. That gives them St. Louis (they finished second?) at home and Carolina on the road. That St. Louis game could be big trouble for the Cowboys if they don't have their safety problems fixed - they gave up a lot of big plays last year.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit on the road. The Chicago game will be especially tough at week three. I think Detroit will be decent, but if they happen to tank and give up on the season then the week 14 game may be much easier.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets at home. I think the Cowboys would take these two games at home in exchange for Chicago and Detroit on the road (as compared to Philadelphia). That's significantly less travel, too.
• The bye week comes at week eight, and is conveniently placed before their road game at Philadelphia. That extra week of rest and preparation could give the Cowboys an extra edge in a game that has divisional standings and tie-breaker implications.
• Like Philadelphia, Dallas has balanced schedule of good/bad teams and home/away games.

NY Giants

• The Giants have a third-place schedule, down from a first-place schedule last year. That gives them San Francisco at home and Atlanta on the road. San Francisco looks like a better-than-average third place team, but they'll be make a cross-country trip to get to New York, which is an extra advantage for the Giants. The Atlanta game comes early (meaning Vick is probably still around), but that team is going to be a mess anyway so it probably matter.
• NFC North games - At Chicago, at Detroit. Tough luck.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets at home. Nice to get the tough games at home.
• The bye week comes in week 9, with an important games against Dallas immediately after. This will come after Dallas has had their road game at Philadelphia, so they could be a bit drained for this game (though that could be projecting too much).
• A win at Dallas to start the year would do more to help the Giants than a loss at Dallas would hurt them. After the Eagles and Jets games in weeks four and five we'll have a pretty good idea how good the Giants are.
• Killer way to end the season: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo (two days after the winter solstice, no less), New England. The Giants had better start strong or they'll have no chance at the playoffs.

Washington

• Washington gets a fourth-place schedule, down from a second-place schedule a year ago. This gives them Arizona at home and Tampa Bay on the road (after Florida cools down). Those are incredibly winnable.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit at home.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets on the road, back-to-back weeks no less.
• The Redskins get the unlucky week 4 bye, with home games sandwiched on each side. Doh.
• The Miami and NY Giants games are very winnable to start the year. At Phili in week2? No shot.
• Detroit, at Green Bay, and Arizona are an easy stretch of games coming out of the bye. After that? Just at New England, at NY Jets, Philadelphia, and at Dallas. Washington's playoff chances will be done after that stretch of games.
  

Intangible notes

• I said this above, but I'll repeat that I think McNabb will limit Philadelphia's win total due to his injuries, either current or potential future ones. Philadelphia's window was propped open by Jeff Garcia last year. Watch the decline start this year.
• The Giants will turn on Coughlin by week 8. Tiki Barber's departure may not help the locker room - wait until week 6, when the Giants are 2-4, Shockey and Burress start running their mouths, and Barber stirs up the pot from NBC's studios. Manning isn't enough of a leader to keep that team together, especially with his own problems to deal with first.
• Portis and Betts will run for 2500 yards combined. That should help take pressure off Jason Campbell and build confidence, so look for him to have a strong(er) second half of the season.
• T.O. has been strangely silent this off season. Or maybe I'm just used to him doing sit-ups in his driveway.
• When does the new Cowboys stadium open? That looks ridiculous. They sure build 'em big in Texas.

This will be a close division. Actually, it will be a close race between Philadelphia and Dallas. Though I see the Giants finishing ahead of the Redskins in the division, I think Washington has the better chance of making the playoffs, as all they'll need is a Roethlisberger-esque season from Campbell and they'll challenge for a wild card. I think the Giants have very little upside potential.

Bottom Line:

1. Dallas - 8-11 wins, probably 9. They'll battle the NFC West winner for the third playoff spot and have a chance at the two-seed if New Orleans slips.
2. Philadelphia - 7-10 wins, probably 8. They'll be lucky to get a wildcard, unless they sweep Dallas.
3. NY Giants - 5-8 wins, probably 7. Coughlin is on the clock.
4. Washington - 5-8 wins, probably 6. Fans watch for 2008 potential, not 2007 results.