AFC East Preview

The Patriots are winning the division. I don't see how you can argue with that statement. They were an interception away from (potentially) winning the Superbowl (no way to the Bears beat the Patriots), and the Pats had an awesome off season. The Adalius Thomas signing is IMO the best free agent signing. Not only is he an incredible talent, but his 5-year, 35 million dollar contract now looks like an absolute steal compared to other defensive contracts (Nate Clements, Dwight Freeney). I also love the Wes Welker signing. I first saw him play in the Miami-Pittsburgh game at the start of 2006, and he screamed of under appreciated talent. The (potential of a) Asante Samuel holdout is troubling, but not so much as to knock the Pats out of the top spot.

Let's take a look at last year's final standings, courtesy espn.com:

AFC EAST	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
New England	12	4	0	.750	385	237	4-2	8-4
NY Jets	10	6	0	.625	316	295	4-2	7-5
Buffalo	7	9	0	.438	300	311	3-3	5-7
Miami	6	10	0	.375	260	283	1-5	3-9

Some things to take from the above:

• New England has huge difference between Point For vs. Points Against (+148), while the other three have relatively small (in order, +21, -11, -23). Add in that New England played a first place schedule and it hints that New England was farther above the rest of the division than win-loss shows.
• Miami was the only team not competitive within the division. Outside of the division they were a .500 team. That gives the dolphins the most room for upward mobility in the division, since division wins will bring down the records of their division opponents.

In addition to the standard home-and-home divisional games, the AFC East will play the AFC North in full, the NFC East in full, and matching-place games against the AFC West and AFC South. Neither the AFC North nor the NFC East have obviously elite teams (the Ravens are close, possibly Cincinnati, and I don't buy anybody in the NFC East as #1 or #2 playoff seeds), but there are a bunch of good and very good teams in both divisions, so we'll call it an average-to-above-average schedule difficulty. One plus - both the NFC East and AFC North are geographically close (not quite as much for Miami, but still), so travel won't take much of a toll on any of the teams.

Let's look at each team's schedule this year:

Patriots

• New England again gets a first place schedule, which gives them San Diego at home (Week 2) and Indianapolis on the road (Week 9).
  
• AFC North games - they get (probably) the two top teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati) at home, and the bottom two on the road. That's an advantage.
• NFC East games - pretty much a toss up. They have one home game against the two top (Philadelphia, Dallas) and one home game against the two bottom.
  
• Their bye week comes in Week 10, directly after the Indy game, after three road games in four weeks, and have a road game at Buffalo after the bye week. It probably helps that they get a late bye, and they'll need it after three of four road games.
• The first five games have two cupcakes (Buffalo, Cleveland), one potentially danger (at Cincinnati), and two incredibly important games, at NY Jest and San Diego, which have divisional and conference tie-breaker implications.
• The last seven games require very little traveling (to New York, Buffalo, and Baltimore, otherwise at home) but none will be easy wins (home against Miami is probably the easiest).

NY Jets

• The most important point in the Jets' schedule this year is that they moved up from a fourth-place schedule to a second-place schedule. That sounds like a big difference, but look at who those second place opponents are: Kansas City (LJ is looking to hold out, Huard or Croyle will QB, and just generally I've heard they're going to slip) and at Tennessee (lost Pacman and their two top receivers, and will probably slip a game or two as teams learn how to prep for Vince Young).
• AFC North games - At Baltimore and at Cincinnati. Ouch. That gives New England a nice relative schedule advantage.
• NFC East games - At NY Giants and at Dallas. Same as New England.
  
• Their bye week comes in Week 10. The mid-season bye is nice, but it comes with three home games combined before and after. That means they don't get much home time during the rest of the season.
  
• Really tough first two games (New England, at Baltimore). An 0-2 start would be tough, but understandable. At least they'll have a chance to bounce back with their next three.
• Four of the last six are on the road, including on at New England. It's going to be tough to finish strong.
  

Buffalo

• The Bills have a third-place schedule (same as last year), but get jobbed with games against Denver (a definite playoff contender) and at Jacksonville (an incredibly physical team that's tough at home).
• AFC North games - Baltimore and Cincinnati at home. That's an advantage over the Jets.
• NFC East games - Like New England and NY Jets, they split home games with the top two and the bottom two.
• Their bye week comes in week six, and, like the Jets, have it sandwiched with three home games - definitely not ideal. Silver lining - they bye comes after their Monday Night game, so they won't have to deal with the six-day week that MNF teams usually have to deal with.
  
• Killer start to their season - Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets. They'll be lucky to get out 2-2.
• After the bye, most of their tough games come at home. If the Bills make the playoffs, it'll be with a strong second half.

Miami

• The Dolphins have a fourth-place schedule (down from a second-place schedule a year ago), giving them Oakland at home and Houston on the road. Both are young teams, and both occur early in the season, meaning Miami will have a chance to hit both teams before they get into a groove.
• AFC North games - Baltimore and Cincinnati at home. Wow, I guess the Jets got screwed with the AFC North games.
• NFC East games - Another split between the top two and the bottom two. Maybe there's an advantage in not have to travel from Miami to Dallas or New York (the two furthest destinations).
• The bye week lies exactly in the middle of the season but, like some of their division-mates, is sandwiched with three home games.
• The Dolphins could start really strong - in their first four games they get Oakland (home), Washington, Houston, and Cleveland (road), a tough Dallas game at home, and a key divisional game at the Jets. If the Dolphins are to have any chance at the playoffs the must beat either Dallas or NY and win three of the remaining four, because...
• The Dolphins have a killer end of their schedule: at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, NY Jets, at Buffalo (*in December), Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati. Look for a second-half slide.

Intangible notes

• The pickup of Thomas Jones for the Jets is huge. His relative impact on the Jets will be more than any other player acquisition in the division.
• Chad Pennington games played in the five seasons as a starter: 15, 10, 13, 3, 16. Playing a full season isn't exactly the norm, and I worry he'll miss a few games and could cost at least one win because of that. Patrick Ramsey is a nice backup, but still, a backup.
  
• The Patriots had a massive offseason. Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker, Kyle Brady, Donte Stallworth, and Randy Moss. That offense is going to explode.
• One knucklehead (Randy Moss) is fine. Two knuckleheads (Brandon Meriweather) can feed off each other (see Portland Trailblazers, 2001 - 2004). I'll be watching that with a close eye.
• The Dolphins have a three-headed monster on defense (Zach Thomas, Joey Porter, Jason Taylor) that are 33, 30, and 32 years-old, respectively. Be wary of one or more breaking down.
• I expect it will take at least a year for Cam Cameron to learn how to be an effective head coach.
• Buffalo's success will probably be determined by whether or not J.P. Losman continues to progress as a quarterback (39.2, 64.9, 84.9 QB ratings in the previous three years). He definitely has the skill position players he needs.

So, what does all of this result in? As I said at the top, the Patriots own this division. Miami is transitioning with a new head coach and a stop-gap QB (Trent Green), which probably puts them at the bottom of the division. Buffalo and NY both got better, but neither kept pace with New England.

Bottom Line:

1. New England: 11-14 wins, probably 13, will compete for #1 and #2 seed in the AFC
2. NY Jets: 7-10 wins, probably 8, will not make the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: 6-9 wins, probably 7, will challenge the Jets for second place in the division.
4. Miami: 3-7 wins, probably 4, will prepare for 2008.