AFC South Preview

I'm glad I waited an extra day before writing this post, because today news broke that will have huge implications for this division, and for the entire NFL, for that matter. The Colts' Left Tackle Tarik Glenn announced his is retiring today. The Colts have lost a number of players from last year's Superbowl-winning team, most of them on defense: Starting CBs Nick Harper and Jason David, MLB Cato June, S Mike Doss, and RB Dominic Rhodes, to name a few. However, none of those loses will have the impact of losing Tarik Glenn.

The offensive line is the one position group where single players are not independently interchangeable. The line must learn to play together, to bond, to grow in order to create a unit better than the sum of its parts. I witnessed this first-hand in 2006 when the Seahawks had to deal with the loss of Steven Hutchinson to the Vikings. Watch how the dominos fell:

• Without a reasonable replacement, the Seahawks offensive-lineplay dropped significantly (consider that in 2005, the Seahawks started one o-line combination the entire year, while in 2006 they had over 10 (can't find a source, but I've heard this number quoted many times in Seattle's sports media, so I'll have to go with that).
  
• While Shawn Alexander's injury hurt run efficiency, the o-line contributed (negatively) to a large extent as well. Without being able to run the ball effectively, the Seahawks could not control the ball, or the clock, and thus couldn't keep their offense on the field as much as needed.
  
• Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck was significantly more pressured in 2006 than 2005 (sacked 34 times in 12 games in 2006, while sacked only 24 times in 16 games in 2005). This was also the result of the Seahawks having to rely more on the pass with Alexander hurt. Teams ultimately game-planned for more pass plays, and further limited Hasselbeck's effectiveness.
• Without the offense burning up game minutes with long drives, the Seahawks defense had to spend more time on the field, which would tire them out by the fourth quarter. The Seahawks defense is an undersized one, built for speed and with the assumption that the offense it is going against will be player catch-up most of the time. When an offense is ahead, it typically pounds the defense with more running plays. The Seahawks defense wasn't built to withstand that kind of attack and ultimately broke down.

In the end, the Seahawks finished with a 9-7 record, down from 13-3 the year before, with the only significant loss among its starters being its Left Guard. They even had some significant additions (Julian Peterson, Deion Branch), but ultimately it didn't matter. The loss of Steve Hutchinson hurt the Seahawks more than any other addition could make up for... and that was from a Left Guard. The Left Tackle is by far the most important position on the offensive line, and is one of the most important positions on the entire team. I don't know by how much, but I would imagine the Left Tackle serves greater importance for a passing team like the Colts (as compared to a run-first team, such as the 2006 Bears). The Colts are losing an 11-year veteran that missed only six games in his entire career, and don't have a reasonable replacement. Furthermore, the Colts are built similarly to the Seahawks - pass first, run as necessary, fast, undersized defense to play from ahead. See the parallels?

Fortunately for the Colts, there is another 2006 Seahawks parallel that will play in their favor - the AFC South is weak. Jacksonville doesn't have a quarterback it likes (and I don't think Dante Culpepper will be much of an upgrade). Tennessee won a bunch of games last year purely on Vince Young's brilliance (which will be game-planned for this year).... along with help from a number of key Pacman Jones interceptions and punt returns. Oops. Oh, and they also lost their top running back (Travis Henry) and their top two receivers (Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade). And then Houston.... is Houston. Indianapolis is too good to not win the division. Past that... it'll be tough.

Last year's final standings:

AFC SOUTH	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
Indianapolis	12	4	0	.750	427	360	3-3	9-3
Tennessee	8	8	0	.500	324	400	4-2	5-7
Jacksonville	8	8	0	.500	371	274	2-4	5-7
Houston	6	10	0	.375	267	366	3-3	6-6

Thoughts on the standings

• Everybody played well in the division. Possible reason - Indy has been on top for years, and the other three teams have built themselves, similarly, to beat Indy. The division caught up to Indy in 2006, but the rest of the league didn't.

The AFC South gets the AFC West and the NFC South for its non-division full schedule. The AFC West has two tough teams - San Diego, Denver. New Orleans, in the NFC South, is on Denver's level. Carolina could be good. The rest of the teams... suck. I'd say this is favorable non-divisional draw.

Indianapolis

• The Colts have a first place schedule, same as 2005. They get their annual game against the Patriots at home (again), and Baltimore on the road (a nice rematch of their playoff upset). Add in the home game against Kansas City and it's like the 2007 playoffs all over again.
• They get to open the entire NFL season on a Thursday at home against New Orleans. That's a potential Superbowl match-up to start the year. Certain much better than the Miami-Pittsburgh dog last year.
• AFC West games - At San Diego, but Denver at home. I don't think Indy is in San Diego's class this year, but the game against Denver will be important as a tiebreaker, so it's better they get that one at home.
• NFC South games - New Orleans at home. That's about the only one that matters. Carolina is a road game, but it's late enough in the season that heat shouldn't be a factor.
• The bye week comes in week 6. Immediately following is a key Monday Night divisional game at Jacksonville.
• The tough games before the bye (Denver, New Orleans) are both at home. The other three games make 5-0 a reasonable possibility.
• Indy could by go 0-4 immediately after the bye, with games at Jacksonville, at Carolina, New England, and at San Diego.
• The regular season ends with relatively easy games at Oakland, and home against Houston and Tennessee.
  

Tennessee

• The Titans have a second-place schedule, up from a third-place schedule the previous year. That gives them a tough game at Cincinnati and a home game with NY Jets.
• AFC West games - Home against San Diego, at Denver and Kansas City. Tennessee will be competing (at best) for a wildcard berth, so it's a tough draw to get Denver and KC, whom will also be shooting for a wildcard, on the road.
• NFC South games - At New Orleans, home against Carolina.
• Their bye week comes in week 4. That's unfortunate.
• The Titans may actually need the bye at week 4, so as to regroup from a killer start at Jacksonville, Indianapolis, at New Orleans.
• Next comes the soft underbelly of the schedule - Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, at Houston, Oakland, and two challenging home games against Carolina and Jacksonville. Tennessee will need to use this part of their schedule to gain momentum.
• Tennessee's playoff hopes may come down to the final game of the season - at Indianapolis.
  

Jacksonville

• Jacksonville gets a third-place schedule, down from a second-place schedule the year previous.
• AFC West games - Home against San Diego, at Denver and Kansas City. Same dilemma as the Titans.
• NFC South games - At New Orleans, home against Carolina.
• Their bye comes at week 4. Huh. Well, at least all of the AFC South teams are getting screwed equally with their bye week. Jacksonville does have road games sandwiched on either side.
• Key season opener home against Tennessee. An early divisional win would do Jacksonville some good.
• The middle of the season has a killer five game stretch, with three straight road games sandwiched by home games against Indianapolis and San Diego. Yikes.
• The final two games of the season (Oakland, at Houston) are a nice, soft landing from what looks like an overall nasty schedule.
  

Houston

• Houston has a fourth-place schedule, same as four of the last five years. This gives them a home game against Miami and a game at Cleveland (game of the year, for sure).
• AFC West games - at Oakland. The other three games won't matter. The one lousy AFC West game is a road game.
• NFC South games - Tampa at home, Atlanta on the road.
• The bye is in week 10. That gives them two weeks to prepare to loose to New Orleans.
• I know I'm being hard on Houston, but (1) they suck, (2) they'll suck for at least one more year and, if lucky, may be competitive in 2007, and, most importantly (3) it's taken me three days to write this entire post, and Houston is one of the more boring teams to me, so, Houston, that's all you get.

Now that the Tarik Glenn story has had a few days to settle, I'm getting the impression that I'm weighing his retirement quite a bit more heavily than most. (I'm judging this based on the lack of 'The Colts have serious problems now" columns). Peter King notes this as a story that has "got far, far too little attention in the past few days". He then goes on to say that scouts have told him that Glenn's drafted replacement, Tony Ugoh, will "handle the adjustment to the NFL just fine." What I want to know is whether Ugoh will handle the adjustment to the NFL this year just fine. I suspect not. Sure, there's a chance that Ugoh will be another Marcus McNeill. But maybe the Colts have lost too many veteran pieces and will suffer a setback year while their newcomers learn the ropes. And I haven't even mentioned the Superbowl hangover.

Overall, this will be a down year for this division. I don't expect Tennessee or Jacksonville to seriously contend for a wildcard spot, nor will they challenge Indianapolis.

Bottom Line:

1. Indianapolis - 8-11 wins, probably 10, worst of the division winners.
2. Jacksonville - 7-10 wins, probably 8, needs to figure out who's going to be their QB.
3. Tennessee - 6-9 wins, probably 7, sophomore slump for Vince Young, largely due to lack of offensive weaponry.
4. Houston - 3-7 wins, probably 5, they're getting better, but they're still bad.