The Seahawks said the same thing last year

Bears players wax on about 'unfinished business'.

I'm sure the Eagles and the Panthers said the same sorts of things in 2005 and 2004.

Is Detroit the new Cardinals?

I saw this on Sportcenter this morning (paraphrasing): Can the Lions win 10 games? Huh. Yeah, I know I was pretty positive about the Lions in my NFC North preview (though I believe I projected 7 wins, not 10), so this may seem like I'm contradicting myself (trust me, it won't be the first time). The Lions are picking up momentum as this year's 'surprise team'. Jon Kitna was laughed at when he initially proclaimed the Lions would win 10 games (and later revised as more than 10 games). Now with a couple months of perspective... that was a brilliant move. Without it, nobody is talking about whether the Lions will win 10 games or not. Besides taking the lead for his team, Kitna got the media talking about the Lions' ability to win 10 games, which will produce a feedback loop that will increase his teammates expectations. That's an important step towards reversing the culture of losing.

So where have I heard this before? How about the 2004, 2005, and 2006 Arizona Cardinals. Many of the most respected football writers jumped on the Cardinals' bandwagon at least one of those years. I think the Cardinals have bitten everybody enough by now that there will be plenty of skepticism towards them (which, ironically, could make them the actual sleeper, but that's for another time). The Lions though... they're new, they have a flashy receiver core, they're building with youth... and they have a horrible offensive line. Sound like the Cardinals? Yeah. Let's hold off on the 10 win discussion. Get to 8 wins, then go from there.

I've Seen This Behavior Before

''Here's what I know about Cedric Benson: 'He's our guy now,''' Smith said. ''We like him. His teammates like him. He's healthy. We're looking for a big year from him. Anything that happened with Cedric in the past, it's in the past.'' - Lovie Smith, on Cedric Benson's status with his Bears teammates.

Yeah, I've heard Lovie talk like this before: Rex Grossman, 2006 season. I'm not saying that I think Benson will be as problematic as Grossman was (or will be), although I do think Benson will be a drop-off from Thomas Jones. It seems that Lovie is showing a pattern of being unwaveringly (i.e. blindly) loyal to his embattled star players. I haven't decided yet if that's a good thing. It probably depends on the player you're defending. Personally, I think defending Grossman is a waste, but that's because I don't see Grossman worth defending (i.e. Grossman is a bum). Benson has had some trouble with injuries (and teammates), but hasn't struggled much when he has played, so maybe it makes more sense to defend Benson. All of this also probably depends on team sentiment. Even if fans are calling for Grossman's job, if the team is behind him then Lovie should defend him. The twist for Benson is that his teammates may not support him. It'll be interesting to see how this turns out.

Football Outsiders

I just discovered these guys: www.footballoutsiders.com

This website is supposed to provide analysis in the football equivalent of baseball's sabremetrics (forgive me if 'sabremetrics' is a general term, not baseball-specific). I've been wanting analysis along these lines for a while now.

And here's an example of the meat and potatoes analysis the give (not in terms of pure stats, but play and playbook analysis).

This definitely looks promising.

NFC North Preview

Before I get started with the actual preview, I'm going to spend a few sentences to mention that I'm going to change-up the structure of these previews. Mostly, the previews are now going to be largely unstructured prose, with no time spent looking at the intricacies of each team's schedule. Why? Well, mostly because it seems to take most of my blogging time, and I'm finding that there's very little relative value (or interest) in that part. So, the previews are now going to be largely my thoughts. With that said, lets get onto the NFC North.

In my opening post, I made it very clear that I am not impartial. Hell, that's all that first post was about. And at this point, there is no team I am more biased against than the Bears. Why? The Bears are too old-school for me. I can't stand that they're as successful as they are with such a horrible offense. Actually, such a horrible passing offense. This isn't just about Rex Grossman. I thought their 2005 season, led by Kyle Orton, was a joke as well. As a matter of personal preference (or style, if I may put it that way), I love a beautifully-executed west-coast offense. Conversely, a game between two smash-mouth run-run-run football teams (see SEC conference football, sans Urban Meyer-coached teams) is incredibly boring. I understand that football will always have 'run the ball, stop the run' at its core, but such strategy is just not as entertaining. So, inherently, I have a problem with Chicago's style. Their passing offense isn't good enough for them to deserve the amount of success they've attained.

It also doesn't help that I'm a Seahawks fan, and had to deal with two horrible losses at Soldier field last year by said Bears team that I don't like. So, as you can imagine, I'm going to try to find anyway I can to justify saying the Bears will go 7-9 and not even get a wildcard spot.

So, can that happen?

Unfortunately, probably not. The two greatest reasons? Minnesota and Green Bay. Those two teams may end up as 1 and 2 in the 2008 NFL draft. Count those as four wins for the Bears. Any chance they don't win at least four more? Naw. So it's time to compromise. Let's try to make a case for a 9-7 season, with a possible 2nd-place finish behind Detroit.

How good is Detroit? Certainly, the Lions have some nice offensive weapons. Jon Kitna will have the option of throwing to Mike Williams, Mike Furrey, and, now, Calvin Johnson. Tatum Bell arrives as a new rushing threat (Detroit should hope Bell isn't another Broncos-system RB). All of this is run by Mad Mike Martz. You know Kitna is going to be tossing multiple 40-yard bombs each game. One problem - the Lions have a horrible offensive line (ranked 29 for those of you without an insider subscription). Now, the threat of that three-wide plus Bell set will certainly take some pressure off the line (or at least remove one guy out of the box). From there, it's all about how that line is coached and how well the linemen gel. From what little I know, Detroit doesn't have amazing raw talent with its linemen, but all they need is to create a few gaps for Tatum Bell and give Kitna 3+ seconds to throw and everything could fall into place.

How bad can Chicago be? This is said, of course, in a relative sense. The Bears won 13 games last year, in a special, Superbowl-making year. How many games will they decline to in 2007? (I would love to see 9, but I'll settle for 10). The Bears have had a number of less-than-positive off-season storylines. Here's a list of the reasons the Bears will decline, beginning with the most significant, in 2007.

• Thomas Jones traded to the Jets. There are so many aspects to this one. I guess I'll start with the loss of Jones's production. 1210 yards in 2006, 3493 in the last three seasons, 4+ yards/carry in the last four. Jones was the feature back last year (nearly double the amount of carries as Cedric Benson), and he did plenty to carry the Bear's offense and take pressure off Rex Grossman. So, why did the Bears get rid of him? That's kind of complicated, but not really when you look at how the Bears operate. A key point to keep in mind about the Bears - they draft quite well. Look at their previous four years and notice how many starters they've picked up in the first three rounds, and how many gems they've picked out of later rounds. This is a great trait, as it allows them the stockpile talent (especially on defense). The downside is the arrogance that comes with knowing they have a good chance of replacing established talents when they leave (I'll get into this again with Lance Briggs' potential hold-out). The Bears apparently didn't have much confidence that Jones would become a feature back, because they used the #4 pick in the 2005 draft to get Cedric Benson. Jones responded with his most prolific year - 1335 yards, 9 touchdowns. Jones had a similarly-productive year in 2006, but that didn't matter. The Bears felt they had the feature back they needed with Benson, who is a younger talent with (I guess) more upside. I've heard rumblings that there were personal issues, so that may have played into all of this. Whatever the case, in the end the Bears felt they had two #1 running backs, and since (proper management of) the salary cap doesn't allow for such talent redundancy, the Bears dropped the older of the two. Overall, that makes the Bears better in the long run, as they will have a well-paid feature back, a low-paid second back, and more money for the rest of their players. But this doesn't make the Bears better for 2007. I don't expect Benson and whatever second back to produce more than Jones and Benson did in 2007, and the money saved wasn't used to bring in any new talent, just keep their current talent (see Vasher and Tillman signings). Good organizations keep and develop their own talent, so I'm not knocking the signings. However, the cost of good talent over time is that peaks are lessened. The Bears peaked last year. They may peak again in 2008. 2007 will be a (relative) valley.
• Losses at Defensive Tackle. Tommie Harris will be back. That's the good news. Ian Scott, Tank Johnson, and Alphonso Boone will not be. A typical DT rotation includes four, sometimes five, players. So the Bears lost most of their DT rotation. That's fine, because they drafted a couple of studs in the the draft, right? Wait, they drafted zero DTs in the 2007 draft? Huh, so what you're saying is they have all of three DTs total on their roster, and will have to fill out their rotation with salary cap scraps in August? That doesn't sound like the Bears I know.
• Potential of a Lance Briggs hold out. I've heard that Jamar Williams is waiting to step in, that the Bears feel the drop-off will be minimal. I call BS on that one. Lance Briggs is a major talent. This is another case of the Bears' nose for talent (i.e. arrogance) hurts them in the short term. Williams, or some other LB, may equal Briggs' talent in the future. The chance that the future is now is minimal. I would be interested in how the Bears organization values each position (in the same sense that the Patriots have values on each position). Briggs' franchise-player contract would be for a little more than 7 million. Do the Bears think 7 million, regardless of the talent, is too much for a right OLB? Could that money be spent better elsewhere? Possibly. Again, this is a decision that helps the Bears in 2008 and beyond, not 2007.
• Loss of Ron Rivera and Lovie Smith's contract dispute. Thankfully, Smith eventually got resigned. And Ron Rivera may not have been the best coach in their organization, so they decided to flush him out and promote in-house. Still, the way both of these played out (long, public disputes) raised some red flags. There's a big difference between signing players and coaches - there's no salary cap for coaches. There's not a lot of good that can come from nickel-and-dime-ing your coaches when there's no limit on what you can pay them and they have a tremendous impact on how the team performs (certainly more so than other major American sports). With no salary cap, why not treat your coaches more like an investment that produces returns? Why make every other coach in the organization worry about their contract negotiations? Being an NFL coach is stressful enough as is. Just pay your coaches and get on with the game.

And I've barely mentioned Rex Grossman yet. This guy got so hammered last year (and deservedly so - how can a starter for a Superbowl team have games with sub-10 QB ratings?), so I'm not going to rub (much) salt in his wounds. I'll just say this much: I don't buy Rex Grossman. He seems to have Brett Favre's gunslinging mentality without any of Favre's talent. The Bears had one of the easiest schedules last year, and Grossman was able to pad his stats with monster games against bad teams (or at least, bad defenses). From what I've seen, this guy doesn't have the accuracy or the decision-making ability to be an elite quarterback. Grossman has been a starter for 2+ years at Florida and 1+ years in Chicago (plus a couple injured years on the bench). Grossman will be 27 this year. Shouldn't his decision-making be set by now? Accuracy can be improved with better mechanics. Decision-making is a bit more innate. Final words on Grossman: MNF in Arizona, and Superbowl.

Green Bay and Minnesota? I've heard talk that Green Bay's young defense will be pretty good, which may keep Brett Favre from playing from behind (and thus cut down on interceptions). Still, you really can only build on side of the ball at a time. The Packers lost Ahman Greene. How are they going to score. And the Vikings? They've got no quarterback. Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson will be fun to watch... if defenses don't put nine in the box.

Bottom Line

1. Chicago - 9-12 wins, probably 10, definitely in contention for a playoff bye.
2. Detroit - 6-9 wins, probably 7, could challenge the Bears if everything goes their way.
3. Green Bay - 4-8 wins, probably 6, look for a lot of low-scoring games.
4. Minnesota - 3-7 wins, probably 4, it'll be a long season.
   

AFC South Preview

I'm glad I waited an extra day before writing this post, because today news broke that will have huge implications for this division, and for the entire NFL, for that matter. The Colts' Left Tackle Tarik Glenn announced his is retiring today. The Colts have lost a number of players from last year's Superbowl-winning team, most of them on defense: Starting CBs Nick Harper and Jason David, MLB Cato June, S Mike Doss, and RB Dominic Rhodes, to name a few. However, none of those loses will have the impact of losing Tarik Glenn.

The offensive line is the one position group where single players are not independently interchangeable. The line must learn to play together, to bond, to grow in order to create a unit better than the sum of its parts. I witnessed this first-hand in 2006 when the Seahawks had to deal with the loss of Steven Hutchinson to the Vikings. Watch how the dominos fell:

• Without a reasonable replacement, the Seahawks offensive-lineplay dropped significantly (consider that in 2005, the Seahawks started one o-line combination the entire year, while in 2006 they had over 10 (can't find a source, but I've heard this number quoted many times in Seattle's sports media, so I'll have to go with that).
  
• While Shawn Alexander's injury hurt run efficiency, the o-line contributed (negatively) to a large extent as well. Without being able to run the ball effectively, the Seahawks could not control the ball, or the clock, and thus couldn't keep their offense on the field as much as needed.
  
• Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck was significantly more pressured in 2006 than 2005 (sacked 34 times in 12 games in 2006, while sacked only 24 times in 16 games in 2005). This was also the result of the Seahawks having to rely more on the pass with Alexander hurt. Teams ultimately game-planned for more pass plays, and further limited Hasselbeck's effectiveness.
• Without the offense burning up game minutes with long drives, the Seahawks defense had to spend more time on the field, which would tire them out by the fourth quarter. The Seahawks defense is an undersized one, built for speed and with the assumption that the offense it is going against will be player catch-up most of the time. When an offense is ahead, it typically pounds the defense with more running plays. The Seahawks defense wasn't built to withstand that kind of attack and ultimately broke down.

In the end, the Seahawks finished with a 9-7 record, down from 13-3 the year before, with the only significant loss among its starters being its Left Guard. They even had some significant additions (Julian Peterson, Deion Branch), but ultimately it didn't matter. The loss of Steve Hutchinson hurt the Seahawks more than any other addition could make up for... and that was from a Left Guard. The Left Tackle is by far the most important position on the offensive line, and is one of the most important positions on the entire team. I don't know by how much, but I would imagine the Left Tackle serves greater importance for a passing team like the Colts (as compared to a run-first team, such as the 2006 Bears). The Colts are losing an 11-year veteran that missed only six games in his entire career, and don't have a reasonable replacement. Furthermore, the Colts are built similarly to the Seahawks - pass first, run as necessary, fast, undersized defense to play from ahead. See the parallels?

Fortunately for the Colts, there is another 2006 Seahawks parallel that will play in their favor - the AFC South is weak. Jacksonville doesn't have a quarterback it likes (and I don't think Dante Culpepper will be much of an upgrade). Tennessee won a bunch of games last year purely on Vince Young's brilliance (which will be game-planned for this year).... along with help from a number of key Pacman Jones interceptions and punt returns. Oops. Oh, and they also lost their top running back (Travis Henry) and their top two receivers (Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade). And then Houston.... is Houston. Indianapolis is too good to not win the division. Past that... it'll be tough.

Last year's final standings:

AFC SOUTH	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
Indianapolis	12	4	0	.750	427	360	3-3	9-3
Tennessee	8	8	0	.500	324	400	4-2	5-7
Jacksonville	8	8	0	.500	371	274	2-4	5-7
Houston	6	10	0	.375	267	366	3-3	6-6

Thoughts on the standings

• Everybody played well in the division. Possible reason - Indy has been on top for years, and the other three teams have built themselves, similarly, to beat Indy. The division caught up to Indy in 2006, but the rest of the league didn't.

The AFC South gets the AFC West and the NFC South for its non-division full schedule. The AFC West has two tough teams - San Diego, Denver. New Orleans, in the NFC South, is on Denver's level. Carolina could be good. The rest of the teams... suck. I'd say this is favorable non-divisional draw.

Indianapolis

• The Colts have a first place schedule, same as 2005. They get their annual game against the Patriots at home (again), and Baltimore on the road (a nice rematch of their playoff upset). Add in the home game against Kansas City and it's like the 2007 playoffs all over again.
• They get to open the entire NFL season on a Thursday at home against New Orleans. That's a potential Superbowl match-up to start the year. Certain much better than the Miami-Pittsburgh dog last year.
• AFC West games - At San Diego, but Denver at home. I don't think Indy is in San Diego's class this year, but the game against Denver will be important as a tiebreaker, so it's better they get that one at home.
• NFC South games - New Orleans at home. That's about the only one that matters. Carolina is a road game, but it's late enough in the season that heat shouldn't be a factor.
• The bye week comes in week 6. Immediately following is a key Monday Night divisional game at Jacksonville.
• The tough games before the bye (Denver, New Orleans) are both at home. The other three games make 5-0 a reasonable possibility.
• Indy could by go 0-4 immediately after the bye, with games at Jacksonville, at Carolina, New England, and at San Diego.
• The regular season ends with relatively easy games at Oakland, and home against Houston and Tennessee.
  

Tennessee

• The Titans have a second-place schedule, up from a third-place schedule the previous year. That gives them a tough game at Cincinnati and a home game with NY Jets.
• AFC West games - Home against San Diego, at Denver and Kansas City. Tennessee will be competing (at best) for a wildcard berth, so it's a tough draw to get Denver and KC, whom will also be shooting for a wildcard, on the road.
• NFC South games - At New Orleans, home against Carolina.
• Their bye week comes in week 4. That's unfortunate.
• The Titans may actually need the bye at week 4, so as to regroup from a killer start at Jacksonville, Indianapolis, at New Orleans.
• Next comes the soft underbelly of the schedule - Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, at Houston, Oakland, and two challenging home games against Carolina and Jacksonville. Tennessee will need to use this part of their schedule to gain momentum.
• Tennessee's playoff hopes may come down to the final game of the season - at Indianapolis.
  

Jacksonville

• Jacksonville gets a third-place schedule, down from a second-place schedule the year previous.
• AFC West games - Home against San Diego, at Denver and Kansas City. Same dilemma as the Titans.
• NFC South games - At New Orleans, home against Carolina.
• Their bye comes at week 4. Huh. Well, at least all of the AFC South teams are getting screwed equally with their bye week. Jacksonville does have road games sandwiched on either side.
• Key season opener home against Tennessee. An early divisional win would do Jacksonville some good.
• The middle of the season has a killer five game stretch, with three straight road games sandwiched by home games against Indianapolis and San Diego. Yikes.
• The final two games of the season (Oakland, at Houston) are a nice, soft landing from what looks like an overall nasty schedule.
  

Houston

• Houston has a fourth-place schedule, same as four of the last five years. This gives them a home game against Miami and a game at Cleveland (game of the year, for sure).
• AFC West games - at Oakland. The other three games won't matter. The one lousy AFC West game is a road game.
• NFC South games - Tampa at home, Atlanta on the road.
• The bye is in week 10. That gives them two weeks to prepare to loose to New Orleans.
• I know I'm being hard on Houston, but (1) they suck, (2) they'll suck for at least one more year and, if lucky, may be competitive in 2007, and, most importantly (3) it's taken me three days to write this entire post, and Houston is one of the more boring teams to me, so, Houston, that's all you get.

Now that the Tarik Glenn story has had a few days to settle, I'm getting the impression that I'm weighing his retirement quite a bit more heavily than most. (I'm judging this based on the lack of 'The Colts have serious problems now" columns). Peter King notes this as a story that has "got far, far too little attention in the past few days". He then goes on to say that scouts have told him that Glenn's drafted replacement, Tony Ugoh, will "handle the adjustment to the NFL just fine." What I want to know is whether Ugoh will handle the adjustment to the NFL this year just fine. I suspect not. Sure, there's a chance that Ugoh will be another Marcus McNeill. But maybe the Colts have lost too many veteran pieces and will suffer a setback year while their newcomers learn the ropes. And I haven't even mentioned the Superbowl hangover.

Overall, this will be a down year for this division. I don't expect Tennessee or Jacksonville to seriously contend for a wildcard spot, nor will they challenge Indianapolis.

Bottom Line:

1. Indianapolis - 8-11 wins, probably 10, worst of the division winners.
2. Jacksonville - 7-10 wins, probably 8, needs to figure out who's going to be their QB.
3. Tennessee - 6-9 wins, probably 7, sophomore slump for Vince Young, largely due to lack of offensive weaponry.
4. Houston - 3-7 wins, probably 5, they're getting better, but they're still bad.
   

NFC East Preview

I am somewhat at a loss with this division. No team is without flaws. No team looks outright horrible. NFL pundits seem to be anointing Philadelphia as one of the top teams in the league (8th, 8th, 8th), though now that I look at it Dallas isn't that far behind (9th in two of those). Here's my problem with Phily: Donovan McNabb is coming off major knee surgery. I know he's an amazing athlete, but so was Dante Culpepper. Oops. McNabb isn't exactly a spring chicken any more (turns 31 during the season), is coming off his third major surgery in five years, and will start the season barely nine months since his knee injury (typically six months to a year to rehab). Bringing him back early jeopardizes the season (and probably limits his abilities), and letting him rehab costs games early in the season. They've got a couple other major players coming back from various injuries (Javon Kearse, Brian Westbrook), but McNabb is what has me concerned. I have a feeling he isn't going to make it through the season (or at least won't be his typical self until maybe halfway through the season), and the Eagles won't have Jeff Garcia to bail them out this year (they have a bunch of #3 quarterbacks, but no #2s).

Dallas, on the other hand, intrigues me. I can see a (temporary, one-year) bounce that comes with replacing the dictatorial Bill Parcells with the (relatively) players-coach Wade Phillips. I don't see T.O. exploding. I think Romo will progress. I like their running backs. I'll have to wait and see how their safeties improve (I'm skeptical of the Hamlin signing, having seen him for a couple years in Seattle, but a new system may do him well), but their defense looks decent.

NY and Washington look like two teams passing each other while going in opposite directions. I don't see Manning responding well to the added pressure of not having Tiki Barber as a crutch, and that could kill the entire season. That whole team looks like a case of the inmates trying to run the asylum with Tom Coughlin as the ineffective warden. Washington has two nice running backs, plenty of other talent, and no Mark Brunell (or any of the other past stiffs that have quarterbacked the Redskins). Sounds like Jason Campell will work out to be a good quarterback, but this will be a learning year.

Last year's final standings:

NFC EAST	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
Philadelphia	10	6	0	.625	398	328	5-1	9-3
Dallas	9	7	0	.563	425	350	2-4	6-6
NY Giants	8	8	0	.500	355	362	4-2	7-5
Washington	5	11	0	.313	307	376	1-5	3-9

Thoughts on the standings

• I forgot that the NFC East had both NFC wildcards. That's not happening this year.
• The Giants have a much smaller point differential (-7) than the Eagles (+70) and the Cowboys (+75). And which of those teams lost a major offensive weapon this off season?
• Dallas went only 2-4 in the division, while Philadelphia went 5-1. I expect both of those records to normalize closer to .500

The NFC East gets the NFC North (weak division) and the AFC East (strong division) for its full division games, and placement games against the NFC West and South. Look for the teams that get Chicago and New England at home and you'll find a team with a distinct edge.

Philadelphia

• Philadelphia gets a first-place schedule, up from a fourth-place schedule from last year, giving them Seattle at home and New Orleans on the road.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit - probably the top two teams in that division - are both home games. Nice break.
• AFC East games - At New England and at NY Jets. Not so nice of a break.
• Their bye comes in Week 5. What a lousy time for a bye. Your players aren't beat-up enough yet to make use of the rest week, and you then have 12 straight weeks of football. Silver lining: The bye is sandwiched with the closest possible road games - NY Giants before and NY Jets afterwards. That should make the rest of the schedule much nicer.
• The Eagles could go into their bye 4-0: At Green Bay, Washington, Detroit, at NY Giants.
• Their remaining schedule is a nice balance of good/bad teams and home/away games. At Dallas, at New Orleans in weeks 15 and 16 will key games towards them earning a playoff spot.

Dallas

• Dallas plays a second-place schedule, same as last year. That gives them St. Louis (they finished second?) at home and Carolina on the road. That St. Louis game could be big trouble for the Cowboys if they don't have their safety problems fixed - they gave up a lot of big plays last year.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit on the road. The Chicago game will be especially tough at week three. I think Detroit will be decent, but if they happen to tank and give up on the season then the week 14 game may be much easier.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets at home. I think the Cowboys would take these two games at home in exchange for Chicago and Detroit on the road (as compared to Philadelphia). That's significantly less travel, too.
• The bye week comes at week eight, and is conveniently placed before their road game at Philadelphia. That extra week of rest and preparation could give the Cowboys an extra edge in a game that has divisional standings and tie-breaker implications.
• Like Philadelphia, Dallas has balanced schedule of good/bad teams and home/away games.

NY Giants

• The Giants have a third-place schedule, down from a first-place schedule last year. That gives them San Francisco at home and Atlanta on the road. San Francisco looks like a better-than-average third place team, but they'll be make a cross-country trip to get to New York, which is an extra advantage for the Giants. The Atlanta game comes early (meaning Vick is probably still around), but that team is going to be a mess anyway so it probably matter.
• NFC North games - At Chicago, at Detroit. Tough luck.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets at home. Nice to get the tough games at home.
• The bye week comes in week 9, with an important games against Dallas immediately after. This will come after Dallas has had their road game at Philadelphia, so they could be a bit drained for this game (though that could be projecting too much).
• A win at Dallas to start the year would do more to help the Giants than a loss at Dallas would hurt them. After the Eagles and Jets games in weeks four and five we'll have a pretty good idea how good the Giants are.
• Killer way to end the season: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo (two days after the winter solstice, no less), New England. The Giants had better start strong or they'll have no chance at the playoffs.

Washington

• Washington gets a fourth-place schedule, down from a second-place schedule a year ago. This gives them Arizona at home and Tampa Bay on the road (after Florida cools down). Those are incredibly winnable.
• NFC North games - Chicago and Detroit at home.
• AFC East games - New England and NY Jets on the road, back-to-back weeks no less.
• The Redskins get the unlucky week 4 bye, with home games sandwiched on each side. Doh.
• The Miami and NY Giants games are very winnable to start the year. At Phili in week2? No shot.
• Detroit, at Green Bay, and Arizona are an easy stretch of games coming out of the bye. After that? Just at New England, at NY Jets, Philadelphia, and at Dallas. Washington's playoff chances will be done after that stretch of games.
  

Intangible notes

• I said this above, but I'll repeat that I think McNabb will limit Philadelphia's win total due to his injuries, either current or potential future ones. Philadelphia's window was propped open by Jeff Garcia last year. Watch the decline start this year.
• The Giants will turn on Coughlin by week 8. Tiki Barber's departure may not help the locker room - wait until week 6, when the Giants are 2-4, Shockey and Burress start running their mouths, and Barber stirs up the pot from NBC's studios. Manning isn't enough of a leader to keep that team together, especially with his own problems to deal with first.
• Portis and Betts will run for 2500 yards combined. That should help take pressure off Jason Campbell and build confidence, so look for him to have a strong(er) second half of the season.
• T.O. has been strangely silent this off season. Or maybe I'm just used to him doing sit-ups in his driveway.
• When does the new Cowboys stadium open? That looks ridiculous. They sure build 'em big in Texas.

This will be a close division. Actually, it will be a close race between Philadelphia and Dallas. Though I see the Giants finishing ahead of the Redskins in the division, I think Washington has the better chance of making the playoffs, as all they'll need is a Roethlisberger-esque season from Campbell and they'll challenge for a wild card. I think the Giants have very little upside potential.

Bottom Line:

1. Dallas - 8-11 wins, probably 9. They'll battle the NFC West winner for the third playoff spot and have a chance at the two-seed if New Orleans slips.
2. Philadelphia - 7-10 wins, probably 8. They'll be lucky to get a wildcard, unless they sweep Dallas.
3. NY Giants - 5-8 wins, probably 7. Coughlin is on the clock.
4. Washington - 5-8 wins, probably 6. Fans watch for 2008 potential, not 2007 results.
   

Vick

I'll add some links to this later (I haven't had a chance to read through all of the takes on Vick's indictment). Quickly though... It doesn't surprise me. Michael Vick has a pattern of poor decision making (as does his brother), there were rumblings that he's been a major player in dog fighting, and he owned the house! I'm glad to see the commissioner is waiting on a suspension (this isn't like Pacman Jones, where multiple prior run-ins with the law can be used to interpolate where a current run-in is leading), but I'm sure it's inevitable. The question becomes when. Purely on the football side, the Falcons would probably prefer to have Vick for at least the season so that they can have a chance at picking up a new quarterback next off season. I have no tie-ins with the Atlanta fan base, so I have no idea how supportive (or willing to ignore) Falcon fans will be, but the road fans will be vicious - just look at how Barry Bonds gets treated.

AFC East Preview

The Patriots are winning the division. I don't see how you can argue with that statement. They were an interception away from (potentially) winning the Superbowl (no way to the Bears beat the Patriots), and the Pats had an awesome off season. The Adalius Thomas signing is IMO the best free agent signing. Not only is he an incredible talent, but his 5-year, 35 million dollar contract now looks like an absolute steal compared to other defensive contracts (Nate Clements, Dwight Freeney). I also love the Wes Welker signing. I first saw him play in the Miami-Pittsburgh game at the start of 2006, and he screamed of under appreciated talent. The (potential of a) Asante Samuel holdout is troubling, but not so much as to knock the Pats out of the top spot.

Let's take a look at last year's final standings, courtesy espn.com:

AFC EAST	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	DIV	CONF
New England	12	4	0	.750	385	237	4-2	8-4
NY Jets	10	6	0	.625	316	295	4-2	7-5
Buffalo	7	9	0	.438	300	311	3-3	5-7
Miami	6	10	0	.375	260	283	1-5	3-9

Some things to take from the above:

• New England has huge difference between Point For vs. Points Against (+148), while the other three have relatively small (in order, +21, -11, -23). Add in that New England played a first place schedule and it hints that New England was farther above the rest of the division than win-loss shows.
• Miami was the only team not competitive within the division. Outside of the division they were a .500 team. That gives the dolphins the most room for upward mobility in the division, since division wins will bring down the records of their division opponents.

In addition to the standard home-and-home divisional games, the AFC East will play the AFC North in full, the NFC East in full, and matching-place games against the AFC West and AFC South. Neither the AFC North nor the NFC East have obviously elite teams (the Ravens are close, possibly Cincinnati, and I don't buy anybody in the NFC East as #1 or #2 playoff seeds), but there are a bunch of good and very good teams in both divisions, so we'll call it an average-to-above-average schedule difficulty. One plus - both the NFC East and AFC North are geographically close (not quite as much for Miami, but still), so travel won't take much of a toll on any of the teams.

Let's look at each team's schedule this year:

Patriots

• New England again gets a first place schedule, which gives them San Diego at home (Week 2) and Indianapolis on the road (Week 9).
  
• AFC North games - they get (probably) the two top teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati) at home, and the bottom two on the road. That's an advantage.
• NFC East games - pretty much a toss up. They have one home game against the two top (Philadelphia, Dallas) and one home game against the two bottom.
  
• Their bye week comes in Week 10, directly after the Indy game, after three road games in four weeks, and have a road game at Buffalo after the bye week. It probably helps that they get a late bye, and they'll need it after three of four road games.
• The first five games have two cupcakes (Buffalo, Cleveland), one potentially danger (at Cincinnati), and two incredibly important games, at NY Jest and San Diego, which have divisional and conference tie-breaker implications.
• The last seven games require very little traveling (to New York, Buffalo, and Baltimore, otherwise at home) but none will be easy wins (home against Miami is probably the easiest).

NY Jets

• The most important point in the Jets' schedule this year is that they moved up from a fourth-place schedule to a second-place schedule. That sounds like a big difference, but look at who those second place opponents are: Kansas City (LJ is looking to hold out, Huard or Croyle will QB, and just generally I've heard they're going to slip) and at Tennessee (lost Pacman and their two top receivers, and will probably slip a game or two as teams learn how to prep for Vince Young).
• AFC North games - At Baltimore and at Cincinnati. Ouch. That gives New England a nice relative schedule advantage.
• NFC East games - At NY Giants and at Dallas. Same as New England.
  
• Their bye week comes in Week 10. The mid-season bye is nice, but it comes with three home games combined before and after. That means they don't get much home time during the rest of the season.
  
• Really tough first two games (New England, at Baltimore). An 0-2 start would be tough, but understandable. At least they'll have a chance to bounce back with their next three.
• Four of the last six are on the road, including on at New England. It's going to be tough to finish strong.
  

Buffalo

• The Bills have a third-place schedule (same as last year), but get jobbed with games against Denver (a definite playoff contender) and at Jacksonville (an incredibly physical team that's tough at home).
• AFC North games - Baltimore and Cincinnati at home. That's an advantage over the Jets.
• NFC East games - Like New England and NY Jets, they split home games with the top two and the bottom two.
• Their bye week comes in week six, and, like the Jets, have it sandwiched with three home games - definitely not ideal. Silver lining - they bye comes after their Monday Night game, so they won't have to deal with the six-day week that MNF teams usually have to deal with.
  
• Killer start to their season - Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets. They'll be lucky to get out 2-2.
• After the bye, most of their tough games come at home. If the Bills make the playoffs, it'll be with a strong second half.

Miami

• The Dolphins have a fourth-place schedule (down from a second-place schedule a year ago), giving them Oakland at home and Houston on the road. Both are young teams, and both occur early in the season, meaning Miami will have a chance to hit both teams before they get into a groove.
• AFC North games - Baltimore and Cincinnati at home. Wow, I guess the Jets got screwed with the AFC North games.
• NFC East games - Another split between the top two and the bottom two. Maybe there's an advantage in not have to travel from Miami to Dallas or New York (the two furthest destinations).
• The bye week lies exactly in the middle of the season but, like some of their division-mates, is sandwiched with three home games.
• The Dolphins could start really strong - in their first four games they get Oakland (home), Washington, Houston, and Cleveland (road), a tough Dallas game at home, and a key divisional game at the Jets. If the Dolphins are to have any chance at the playoffs the must beat either Dallas or NY and win three of the remaining four, because...
• The Dolphins have a killer end of their schedule: at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, NY Jets, at Buffalo (*in December), Baltimore, at New England, Cincinnati. Look for a second-half slide.

Intangible notes

• The pickup of Thomas Jones for the Jets is huge. His relative impact on the Jets will be more than any other player acquisition in the division.
• Chad Pennington games played in the five seasons as a starter: 15, 10, 13, 3, 16. Playing a full season isn't exactly the norm, and I worry he'll miss a few games and could cost at least one win because of that. Patrick Ramsey is a nice backup, but still, a backup.
  
• The Patriots had a massive offseason. Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker, Kyle Brady, Donte Stallworth, and Randy Moss. That offense is going to explode.
• One knucklehead (Randy Moss) is fine. Two knuckleheads (Brandon Meriweather) can feed off each other (see Portland Trailblazers, 2001 - 2004). I'll be watching that with a close eye.
• The Dolphins have a three-headed monster on defense (Zach Thomas, Joey Porter, Jason Taylor) that are 33, 30, and 32 years-old, respectively. Be wary of one or more breaking down.
• I expect it will take at least a year for Cam Cameron to learn how to be an effective head coach.
• Buffalo's success will probably be determined by whether or not J.P. Losman continues to progress as a quarterback (39.2, 64.9, 84.9 QB ratings in the previous three years). He definitely has the skill position players he needs.

So, what does all of this result in? As I said at the top, the Patriots own this division. Miami is transitioning with a new head coach and a stop-gap QB (Trent Green), which probably puts them at the bottom of the division. Buffalo and NY both got better, but neither kept pace with New England.

Bottom Line:

1. New England: 11-14 wins, probably 13, will compete for #1 and #2 seed in the AFC
2. NY Jets: 7-10 wins, probably 8, will not make the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: 6-9 wins, probably 7, will challenge the Jets for second place in the division.
4. Miami: 3-7 wins, probably 4, will prepare for 2008.
   

The New Fan's Disclaimer

I am not impartial. Further more, I am completely biased. I love the Seahawks. I like seeing the Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Panthers, Broncos, and everybody else in the NFC west lose. My knowledge of the NFL largely comes from closely following the league over the past three years, and just barely paying attention prior to that. I have a Left Coast bias, and a slight anti-East Coast bias.

And all of that makes following the NFL fun. That's what this blog is about - having fun and giving an outlet for my NFL fan hobby.

This blog is all about my thoughts, some of which will based on facts, some of which will be pure gut feelings and passion. I'll also try my best to post the links of the NFL stories I read each day (and maybe podcasts too, if there's an easy way to link to them).

With that said, let's start with some divisional previews...