King on the Cincinnati Bengals

Article

Two things stick out from this article:

1. Carson Palmer is fully recovered and is stepping up as the leader of the offense. I love hearing about QBs inviting their receivers to take part in summer workouts. Even without Chris Henry for the first half of the year, Palmer, and the Bengals offense, is going to be massive this year.

2. The Bengal's defense is nowhere near as good as its offense. First-round pick Leon Hall is a nice talent, but CBs often struggle in their first year and they need him now. Losing Odell Thurman for another year really hurts. Check out his rookie year stats: 106 tackles (best on the team by 20%), 5 forced fumbles (again, tops on the team), 5 interceptions (topped only by the 10 of CB Deltha O'Neal). ESPN.com's scouting has him as the 12th best linebacker in the NFL.

I've had a gut feeling that the Bengals were going to bounce back this year. Peter King doesn't think so, largely because he doesn't think their defense is good enough. So, just for kicks, I looked up Bengals-vs-Opponents stats from their 12-4 2005 season and their 8-8 2006 season:

2005:

Team Down Stats					1st Down				3rd Down			4th Down
	YDS	RUSH	PASS	PTS	TOT	RUSH	PASS	PEN	MADE	ATT	PCT	MADE	ATT	PCT
Offensive	358	119	239	26	342	109	203	30	84	196	42.9	3	10	30.0
Opponents	339	116	223	22	321	109	185	27	81	190	42.6	6	14	42.9

2006:

Team Down Stats					1st Down				3rd Down			4th Down
	YDS	RUSH	PASS	PTS	TOT	RUSH	PASS	PEN	MADE	ATT	PCT	MADE	ATT	PCT
Offensive	341	102	240	23	313	88	200	25	72	201	35.8	6	9	66.7
Opponents	355	116	239	21	337	109	206	22	88	211	41.7	11	21	52.4

Here's what the stats say: 2006 opponents were roughly as effective than 2005 opponents (comparing 2005/2006): 22/21 points/game, 339/355 yards/game, 42.6/41.7 third-down conversion percentage. What actually lagged in 2006 was the offense: 26 points per game dropped to 23 (+3, as compared to -1 for the defense). Third-down conversion percentage dropped 7.1% (42.9 to 35.8). Rushing yards dropped 17/game (119 to 102). I would say this is the case of the defense suffering due to a lagging offense, except that the defense didn't statistically suffer. I stand my prediction of the Bengals bouncing back.